Update Country Report Curaçao 17 Oct 2017

Event

On October 5th the parliament of the Netherlands held a debate about the rising number of illegal migrants from Venezuela entering Curaçao, driven by the former's deteriorating economy. The Dutch foreign minister, Bert Koenders, stated that there were no plans at present to impose visa restrictions on Venezuelans visiting Curaçao, despite the rise in illegal migration.

Analysis

The debate in the Dutch legislature discussed Venezuelan migration to Curaçao, Aruba and Bonaire and raised questions about a further potential increase in entrants should the situation in Venezuela worsen. These islands are close to Venezuela's coastline and are a popular destination for Venezuelan tourists, with frequent flights from Venezuela to these locations. Venezuela is one of the main source countries for tourists to Curaçao and contributes strongly to tourism receipts.

However, the deteriorating economic and security situation in Venezuela has led to a decrease in Venezuelan overnight stays, which fell by 58% year on year in January-August, and an increase in illegal migration into the Caribbean, often using Curaçao as an entry point. Venezuelans do not require a visa to visit Curaçao, reflecting the frequency of travel between the two countries and Curaçao's aim to facilitate tourism to the island. Reports in local Curaçao media have noted an increase in the number of legal Venezuelan arrivals remaining beyond their return ticket date, and a rise in the number of Venezuelans arriving via illegal means to avoid being registered with the authorities. This allows immigrants to either stay in the country "under the radar" indefinitely or to move on within the Caribbean without being detected. In May the Curaçao coastguard rescued 26 Venezuelans from Little Curaçao, a small island 30 km from Curaçao, who had reportedly been brought there by traffickers. At that time, local press reported that more than 100 migrants had been intercepted since January 2017, and a higher proportion is likely to be able to reach Curaçao undetected. Numbers may rise as tensions in Venezuela increase as the presidential elections due in 2018 approaches.

The negative economic impact of illegal Venezuelan migration to Curaçao is likely to be minimal compared with the economic advantages of retaining visa-free entry for tourists. Even rising numbers of illegal migrants are unlikely to spark a review of the current visa arrangements.

Impact on the forecast

We are keeping our economic forecasts unchanged based on the expectation that visa requirements will not be imposed on Venezuelans in 2018-19.