The economic forecast will be heavily dependent on the domestic political outlook, as the country will move to a higher long-term growth path only if the resolution of the political crisis is followed by the formation of a stable government. The economic situation has become increasingly dire, there is a humanitarian crisis with over 2m people displaced and the economy will probably contract in 2011. The sanctions have reduced foreign assets and deposits, hindering the capacity of banks to finance their operations and causing a liquidity crisis. This will gradually ease as access to the country's reserves at the central bank is restored and the government begins to pay civil services, and banks will re-open in May. Cocoa exports will also restart in May and there is an estimated 500,000 tonnes of cocoa, worth more than US$1bn, stored in warehouses ready for export. We forecast a contraction in GDP of 1.2% in 2011, improving to growth of 2.2% in 2012. If a stable government is quickly formed in 2011, the forecast for 2012 could be revised upwards, but the political crisis has damaged long-term investor confidence.