Outlook for 2011-12

• The new president, Alassane Ouattara, faces three significant problems; to establish a stable government, to manage the fall-out from investigations into the atrocities, and to avoid further violence between rival factions.
• A truth and reconciliation commission will be established to investigate the atrocities and might spur occasional political crises if it implicates leading politicians who go on to serve in Mr Ouattara's administration.
• Mr Ouattara has promised that all regions and ethnic groups will be represented in a government of national unity, which will be named in May. It is expected to include some prominent supporters of the previous president.
• There will be substantial challenges forming a stable government; it will be extremely difficult to reconcile political divisions, as the nation has been firmly divided by a bloody civil war.
• The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the economy will shrink in 2011, before recovering in 2012 if political stability can be maintained.
• We forecast an inflation rate of 6% in 2011 owing to the sanctions imposed because of the political crisis. As global food and fuel prices ease, we forecast that inflation will fall to 2.9% in 2012.

Monthly review

• The long-running stand-off between the disputed winner of November's presidential election, Laurent Gbagbo, and his rival, Mr Ouattara, has come to a dramatic end with the capture of Mr Gbagbo on April 11th.
• Around 120 people in Mr Gbagbo's retinue were detained in the operation to capture Mr Gbagbo, although around one-half were released over the following week.
• Mr Gbagbo's infamous "street general", Charles Blé Goudé, appears to have evaded capture, despite initial claims that he had been arrested.
• The World Food Programme has launched a nationwide airlift to get urgently-needed food, water, shelter and sanitation supplies to the 2m displaced Ivorians, as well as to refugees in Liberia.
• Mr Gbagbo's military chief, General Philippe Mangou, and the heads of the police, navy and security services, have pledged their allegiance to Mr Ouattara.
• The African Union and the EU have lifted sanctions, unfreezing the country's international assets and enabling foreign companies to resume business with Côte d'Ivoire.

There is fresh hope for a return to political stability in Côte d'Ivoire under the new president, Alassane Ouattara, as the four-month political stand-off ended with the capture of former president, Laurent Gbagbo, on April 11th. This brought to an end a violent post-election period in which several thousand people were killed and an estimated 2m were displaced, and averted the possibility of a full-blown civil war. After he is officially inaugurated as president in May, Mr Ouattara will face many problems, three of which will carry particular importance: to manage the fall-out from investigations into the atrocities of the past four months; to establish a stable government and restart the economy; and to avoid further violence between rival factions.

The decision about what to do with Mr Gbagbo and those responsible for the recent atrocities could prove embarrassing for Mr Ouattara. He has pledged to set up a truth and reconciliation commission (TRC) to investigate and punish those responsible, including pro-Ouattara forces if evidence is found of their involvement. He is keen to try Mr Gbagbo in an Ivorian court rather than transferring him to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. However, the ICC has stated that it will conduct its own inquiry into crimes against humanity in Côte d'Ivoire. Allegations of atrocities by pro-Ouattara forces, notably the reported massacre of 800 civilians in Duékoué mean that Mr Ouattara could potentially find himself facing the ICC too, although this seems unlikely. The TRC is likely to drag out over the next few years and may spur occasional political crises if it implicates leading politicians that go on to serve in Mr Ouattara's administration.

The second significant difficulty is trying to establish a stable government, a task that Mr Ouattara has already started working on. The November 2010 polls were supposed to reunite the north and south of the country, but divisions have become more firmly entrenched and many of Mr Gbagbo's supporters believe that his opponent has mounted a coup. Mr Ouattara has called on the country to work together and promised that all regions and ethnic groups will be represented in a new government of national unity, which will be named in May. This is a difficult task; divisions have become more entrenched and he will be unable to offer positions to the many Gbagbo supporters who are under investigation. Nevertheless, it is important that he finds a way to reassure the 46% of the population who did not vote for him that he will govern in the interests of the whole country.

Perhaps the greatest challenge facing Mr Ouattara is restoring peace and security to the country after four months of spiralling violence. Prospects were boosted when Mr Gbagbo's former military chief, General Philippe Mangou, and the heads of the police, navy and security services, pledged their allegiance to Mr Ouattara. However stability is still threatened by disparate groups of pro-Gbagbo Young Patriots, and rival groups supporting Mr Ouattara that might fight over the distribution of power and resources. To prevent this, Mr Ouattara has ordered all military forces to return to their barracks. Guillaume Soro, the increasingly powerful prime minister and leader of the Forces républicaines de Côte d'Ivoire (FRCI), will play a key role in re-establishing the rule of law. UN troops will spearhead efforts to collect the vast array of weaponry, disarm informal militias and demine parts of Abidjan. The central scenario of the Economist Intelligence Unit is that an uneasy peace will return in coming months, helped by the re-establishment of a functioning economy and the easing of the humanitarian crisis, but sporadic outbreaks of violence and reprisal killings can be expected throughout the forecast period.

The outcome of the second round of the presidential election provoked a fresh crisis in Côte d'Ivoire, with both candidates claiming to have won the poll. The political stand-off lasted from December until the capture of Mr Gbagbo on April 11th. A government of national unity in which Mr Ouattara has promised all regions and ethnic groups will be represented is expected to be announced shortly after he is inaugurated as president in the first half of May. Legislative elections are tentatively slated to take place before the end of 2011, although further delays are probable.

Côte d'Ivoire's international partners have been almost unanimous in recognising Mr Ouattara's victory and the removal of Mr Gbagbo could lead to the full re-engagement of donors and investors. The UN had hoped to reduce considerably its peacekeeping force in the country, but these plans are on hold for the foreseeable future; as there is likely to be a core group of Gbagbo supporters who will continue to resist the rule of Mr Ouattara, keeping instability high.

The restoration of security and the re-establishment of government operations will be the main economic priorities as they will be crucial to attract donor funding. Political stability and economic sanctions have crippled the economy in recent months, but some of these effects will be quickly reversed if Mr Ouattara can establish a viable government. His administration will be granted access to funds from the regional central bank, Banque centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'ouest (BCEAO). This will be used to re-establish the payment of civil service salaries, which will help to resolve the liquidity crisis. The economic sanctions have been lifted and foreign trade will gradually normalise, although it will take some time for the backlog of almost 500,000 tonnes of cocoa beans to be exported.

The return to political stability will generate expectations among the population of a rapid improvement in living standards and the provision of public services. To this end, the government will try to relieve the humanitarian crisis and take measures to help the 2m displaced people to return to their homes. It will also seek to establish a policy programme with the IMF, likely to be a Rapid Credit Facility, a programme designed for countries affected by conflict that provides emergency funds at a low interest rate. This will eventually be replaced by an Extended Credit Facility. The medium-term priority will be to get the country back on track for the debt write-off under the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative, but this is unlikely before 2012 at the earliest.

The country's fiscal situation has been thrown into chaos since the disputed election results led to the establishment of two rival governments, and it will take some time before the state of the government's finances becomes clear. Revenue in 2011 has fallen significantly owing to international sanctions, an export ban, the suspension of aid (as well as a US$3bn HIPC debt write-off), and the BCEAO's denial of access to state accounts by Mr Gbagbo's government. The net effect was to tighten the screw on Mr Gbagbo's government's ability to function, weakening the loyalty of his troops, and it played a key role in removing him from power.

With Mr Ouattara now taking control of the fiscal levers, a large revenue improvement is expected. The new government will stand to benefit from significant flows of donor support, much of which will initially go towards alleviating the humanitarian crisis. France has pledged US$580m in emergency aid, which will be complemented by US$100m of development funds from the World Bank and EUR180m (US$245m) from the EU. These will be used to fund the resumption of essential public services-power, water, sanitation, hospitals and schools-and to pay public-sector salaries. Following the removal of sanctions, cocoa and oil export earnings should benefit from high prices in 2011. The possible redeployment of the tax and customs administration in the northern regions in 2012 could help to reduce tax evasion and smuggling. There will be large demands on government resources, and the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is forecast at 2.3% in 2011 before improving to 2.1% in 2012.

Monetary policy is determined by the regional central bank, the priorities of which are targeting inflation and maintaining the CFA franc's peg to the euro. Policy will therefore continue to be influenced by that of the European Central Bank (ECB). The BCEAO last cut its repurchase rate (taux de pension) by 50 basis points to 4.25% in June 2009. With a deteriorating inflationary outlook in the Franc Zone and the ECB tightening in April on similar concerns despite economic and fiscal weakness, the BCEAO may begin to tighten monetary policy in 2011. The BCEAO has recognised Mr Ouattara as president, handing him the power of signature on the country's reserves.

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The economic forecast will be heavily dependent on the domestic political outlook, as the country will move to a higher long-term growth path only if the resolution of the political crisis is followed by the formation of a stable government. The economic situation has become increasingly dire, there is a humanitarian crisis with over 2m people displaced and the economy will probably contract in 2011. The sanctions have reduced foreign assets and deposits, hindering the capacity of banks to finance their operations and causing a liquidity crisis. This will gradually ease as access to the country's reserves at the central bank is restored and the government begins to pay civil services, and banks will re-open in May. Cocoa exports will also restart in May and there is an estimated 500,000 tonnes of cocoa, worth more than US$1bn, stored in warehouses ready for export. We forecast a contraction in GDP of 1.2% in 2011, improving to growth of 2.2% in 2012. If a stable government is quickly formed in 2011, the forecast for 2012 could be revised upwards, but the political crisis has damaged long-term investor confidence.

Inflation will be high in 2011 owing to the sanctions, which have caused shortages of basic goods, higher commodity prices and the unstable economic situation. The political crisis and violence following the election have reduced domestic food production, raising local prices, and we forecast inflation of 6% for the year. Inflation will ease in 2012 as global food and fuel prices fall back, but some price pressures will remain. Rises in domestic demand caused by an economic recovery, as well as higher public spending if aid flows are reinstated, will keep average inflation at 2.9% in 2012.

The CFA franc will remain pegged to the euro at a rate of CFAfr655.96:EUR1, and will therefore fluctuate against the US dollar in line with the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro. Further quantitative easing in the US along with an increase in ECB interest rates will help the euro to outperform the dollar in 2011 despite prolonged economic and fiscal weakness within the euro zone. The euro-pegged franc ended 2010 weaker than it started the year, averaging CFAfr495:US$1 over the 12 months, and is forecast to improve to an average of CFAfr481:US$1 in 2011 before sliding back to CFAfr507:US$1 in 2012.

The current-account surplus will fall in 2011 as political instability and economic sanctions hurt the country's exports. The smuggling of cocoa into neighbouring Ghana has increased as companies try to bypass the sanctions on the ports but cocoa exports from the ports of San-Pédro and Abidjan will restart in May. Oil export earnings will hold up well despite the sanctions, helped by high global prices in 2011, before falling in 2012. In the meantime, capital import growth will taper in 2011 as the uncertainty over the country's economic future delays investment. The deficit on the transfers account will remain deep, because of the suspension of donor funds, before recovering slightly in 2012 if political stability is restored. Overall, the current-account balance as a percentage of GDP is forecast to fall from 2.7% in 2010 to -0.6% in 2011-12.

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The long-running stand-off between the disputed winner of November's presidential election, Laurent Gbagbo, and his rival, Alassane Ouattara, has come to a dramatic end with the storming of the presidential compound in the commercial capital, Abidjan, and the capture of Mr Gbagbo by rebel forces. The offensive launched in late March by the northern rebel army-reconstituted as the Forces républicaines de Côte d'Ivoire (FRCI)-met little resistance before coming up against a hardcore of pro-Gbagbo forces in Abidjan. This was followed by a tense siege of the national television station, two military camps and the presidential residence in Cocody, where Mr Gbagbo, his family and closest advisers took refuge in a bunker, protected by 200 elite troops (April 2011, The political scene). Despite repeated attempts to persuade Mr Gbagbo to surrender, he steadfastly refused to recognise Mr Ouattara as the winner of the November election, and once again tried to play for time, hoping to create a new stalemate while stirring up anti-colonial resentment against the rebels' international backers, the UN mission in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI) and the French-run Opération Licorne. A series of counter-attacks by pro-Gbagbo forces-including a bombardment of Mr Ouattara's headquarters at the Golf Hotel with mortars-briefly put the rebels on the back foot, while pro-Gbagbo units caused panic in Cocody by attacking diplomatic residences, prompting the intervention of French and UNOCI forces to rescue diplomatic staff.

However, the FRCI responded by calling in air support from UNOCI and Opération Licorne, which launched helicopter attacks on the heavy weaponry in the presidential compound, effectively destroying it. The following morning, April 11th, FRCI forces stormed the compound, capturing Mr Gbagbo, his wife, family and closest aides. Mr Gbagbo was transferred to an undisclosed location in the interior of the country, believed to be in the vicinity of Korhogo. Although French troops and tanks supported the operation to capture Mr Gbagbo, the French government insisted that French forces did not enter the presidential compound or take part in Mr Gbagbo's capture. Around 120 people in Mr Gbagbo's retinue were detained in the operation, although around half were released over the following week. Mr Gbagbo's infamous "street general", Charles Blé Goudé, appears to have evaded capture, despite initial claims that he had been arrested by rebel forces. Aside from at least a dozen soldiers killed in the operation, the one high-profile fatality was the former interior minister, Désiré Tagro, who died the following day from gunshot wounds. Conflicting accounts of his death circulated, one that he was shot by pro-Ouattara forces as he emerged from the bunker waving a white handkerchief, another that he took his own life rather than fall into rebel hands.

The capture of Mr Gbagbo is a major victory for Mr Ouattara's fledgling government, and is an important milestone in Côte d'Ivoire's efforts to end its long-running conflict and restore stability. The rebels' decisive action against the presidential compound, supported by UNOCI and French troops, proved timely as they discovered vast quantities of munitions in the complex, including over 500 cases of BM-21 missiles. Speaking on national television Mr Ouattara declared a "new dawn of hope", and called on remaining pro-Gbagbo forces to lay down their weapons. Conscious of the collapse of the economy and the acute humanitarian crisis afflicting the country, Mr Ouattara promised to make restoring peace and stability his government's top priority. Negotiations are underway with leading figures from Mr Gbagbo's administration on the formation of a government of national unity in which Mr Ouattara has promised all regions and ethnic groups will be represented. This is expected to be announced shortly after Mr Ouattara is inaugurated as president in the political capital, Yamoussoukro, in the first half of May. Legislative elections, which had been due to take place shortly after the presidential election, are tentatively slated to take place before the end of the year.

On April 18th Mr Ouattara called on all public-sector workers to return to work, although few turned up as many offices had been looted and security remains poor. The following day his prime minister, Guillaume Soro, held his first ministerial meeting in government offices in the city's Plateau area, promising to get down to business immediately. Responding to international outcry at the wave of atrocities committed during the four months since the election, Mr Ouattara pledged to set up a truth and reconciliation commission (TRC) to investigate all atrocities committed and punish those responsible, including pro-Ouattara forces if evidence is found of their involvement. Mr Ouattara also promised an investigation into the dealings of Mr Gbagbo, his wife and entourage, and he is keen to try him in an Ivorian court rather than transfer Mr Gbagbo to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.

The greatest challenge facing Mr Ouattara is restoring peace and security after four months of spiralling violence. Although Mr Gbagbo's military chief, General Philippe Mangou, along with the heads of the police, navy and security services, have pledged their allegiance to Mr Ouattara, there are still numerous armed groups that need to be brought under control. In the days following Mr Gbagbo's capture there were reports of reprisal killings by pro-Ouattara forces in pro-Gbagbo neighbourhoods, notably Yopougon and Kouamassi, and wide-scale looting of government offices, shops and private homes. Disparate groups of pro-Gbagbo Young Patriots continue to operate across Abidjan, triggering sporadic clashes with FRCI and UNOCI patrols. Even more alarming, there have been reports of clashes between the FRCI and local pro-Ouattara forces, known as the "Commando Invisible", which seized control of Abobo in late February and launched a guerrilla war against pro-Gbagbo elements in the city. This force was rumoured to be under the control of Ibrahim Coulibaly ("IB")-who allegedly led a failed coup attempt against the New Forces leader, Guillaume Soro, in December 2007 (January 2008, The political scene)-and following Mr Gbagbo's capture, Mr Coulibaly duly appeared in Abidjan demanding recognition for his forces' role in overthrowing Mr Gbagbo. Fighting between rival pro-Ouattara forces is a major concern for Mr Ouattara, and he has ordered all military forces to return to their barracks while instructing Mr Soro to meet with Mr Coulibaly and resolve any disputes. UNOCI troops are also spearheading efforts to collect the vast array of weaponry distributed to the population or looted during the unrest, disarm numerous informal militias and de-mine several areas of the city, most notably Cocody.

UN appoints commission to investigate atrocities

In response to widespread reports of atrocities since the presidential election in November, on April 12th the UN Human Rights Council appointed a team of experts to investigate. UN workers have uncovered over 500 bodies in the west of the country, and at least 400 others are believed to have been killed in Abidjan. Human rights organisations estimate that over 1,500 people have been killed in the four months since the election, with massacres reported in Duékoué, Guiglo and Bloléquin. In Duékoué as many as 1,000 people were massacred on March 29th-30th, many of them from the Guéré ethnic group (which supported Laurent Gbagbo), and 30,000 people are still taking refuge in the grounds of the local Catholic mission there; a further 85 were killed in Bloléquin. In addition, Human Rights Watch has reported dozens of rapes, beatings and murders, as well as the burning of ten villages in western Côte d'Ivoire. The atrocities have been blamed on a myriad of perpetrators, including Liberian mercenaries fighting alongside pro-Gbagbo militias and traditional hunters (dozos) fighting alongside the rebels, as well as locals settling scores with their neighbours.

Responding to international outrage at the violence the new president, Alassane Ouattara, has promised to co-operate with the UN investigation and to bring those responsible to justice, even if they are pro-Ouattara forces. This point was emphasised by his justice minister, Jeannot Ahoussou, who admitted that rebel forces had been involved in the killing of up to 70 people in Duékoué, although he insisted that the pro-Gbagbo forces were responsible for the majority of the killings. It is possible that attacks against civilians could be judged by the UN as crimes against humanity, which could lead to indictments by the International Criminal Court. The investigation, which is to report to the UN Security Council by mid-June, is certain to raise awkward questions for both Mr Gbagbo and Mr Ouattara, and will test the latter's ability to hold his rebel alliance together if, as is likely, some of its members are held to account for their involvement in atrocities. However, it could also prove awkward for the UN mission in Côte d'Ivoire, which had 1,000 troops in Duékoué, but failed to stop the massacre of hundreds of civilians there.

The capture of Mr Gbagbo has been followed by the stepping up of international relief efforts. According to the International Organisation for Migration, over 2m Ivorians have been displaced by the violence. This includes over 1m in Abidjan, 800,000 in the western region and around 200,000 migrant workers from Burkina Faso, Ghana, Guinea and Mali. There are an estimated 150,000 Ivorian refugees in Liberia, and 5,000 in Ghana, while Burkina Faso and Mali are bracing themselves for the return of as many as 50,000 migrant workers over the coming weeks. The World Food Programme (WFP) has launched a nationwide airlift to get urgently-needed food, water, shelter and sanitation supplies to displaced Ivorians, as well as bolstering food and accommodation for refugees in Liberia. It has been bolstered by funds from the EU and other donors, but is still short of its target. The timing of the crisis is critical as the rainy season is due to start and if farmers do not plant maize and rice soon, then the food crisis could be exacerbated later in the year.

Following the end of the military stand-off in Abidjan and the capture of Mr Gbagbo, Côte d'Ivoire's international partners have pledged emergency funding to help to restore the country's administration and the provision of basic services. France has pledged US$580m in emergency aid, which will be complemented by US$100m of development funds from the World Bank and EUR180m (US$245m) from the EU. These will be used to fund the resumption of essential public services-power, water, sanitation, hospitals and schools-pay public-sector salaries and meet the country's external debt obligations. The African Union and the EU have also lifted sanctions on Côte d'Ivoire, unfreezing the country's international assets and enabling foreign companies to resume business with the ports of Abidjan and San-Pédro, the national refinery (SIR) and the cocoa trade management committee. However, the resumption of economic activity and the full disbursal of these funds will not occur until government ministries have reopened and the banking system has resumed operations. The regional central bank, Banque centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'ouest (BCEAO), planned to restart operations in mid-April, but the country's commercial banks have been slow to reopen, reflecting concerns over security in Abidjan as well as the damage inflicted on many bank branches by looters.

The chiefs of the World Bank and the IMF, Robert Zoellick and Dominique Strauss-Kahn respectively, have publicly indicated their willingness to resume co-operation with Côte d'Ivoire's government. On April 12th they met with the acting Ivorian finance minister, Charles Koffi Diby, at the World Bank's Spring Meetings in Washington DC, to discuss an economic recovery plan for 2011. The IMF is believed to be considering granting a rapid credit facility (RCD), which is designed for countries affected by natural disasters or conflict and provides immediate disbursements of emergency funds at a low interest rate and with limited conditionality. This should help to alleviate the immediate humanitarian and economic crisis, after which the Fund plans to move the country to a fully-funded programme-most probably an extended credit facility (ECF)-and get it back on track for the debt write-off under the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative that was suspended late last year. Key to the success of these discussions will be Mr Ouattara's ability to restore security and re-establish government operations, without which donor relations will remain in limbo.

Following the lifting of economic sanctions on Côte d'Ivoire, cocoa exports from San-Pédro and Abidjan-the economic lifeblood of Côte d'Ivoire-are set to resume. Since the imposition of a ban on foreign buyers from exporting cocoa from Côte d'Ivoire, nearly 500,000 tonnes of beans have built up in warehouses in San-Pédro and Abidjan. An additional 150,000 tonnes is believed to have accumulated in the interior, where farmers have been unable to sell their crop owing to instability. Following the lifting of the ban the world's leading cocoa companies announced their intention to resume purchases and exports of Ivorian beans, and the two largest shippers of Ivorian cocoa- France's CMA CGM and Denmark's Maersk-have sent ships to Côte d'Ivoire with a view to resuming exports.

However, many obstacles must be overcome before exports can resume. These include restoring security in Abidjan and San-Pédro, repairing damage to the logistics infrastructure, reopening banks and re-establishing lines of credit, and ironing out a new tax and customs regime. Mr Ouattara has already replaced the chiefs of the customs and tax administration, as well as the head of the cocoa management committee, and cocoa stockpiles need to be checked for any signs of deterioration over the past two months. Nonetheless, cocoa buyers remain hopeful that exports will resume by mid-May, although it will take several months to clear the backlog, as both ports can together export a maximum of 150,000 tonnes per month.

Of greater concern is the fate of the current mid-crop, estimated at 200,000 tonnes. Although rains have been ideal, many farmers were driven from their farms by the violence and it remains unclear how much of the crop has been harvested. Coupled with concerns over next season's crop-which currently lacks inputs and financing-this has kept international prices high.

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Land area

322,463 sq km

Population

21.6m (2010; IMF estimate)

Main towns

Population in '000 (The World Gazetteer, 2010 projections)

Abidjan: 4,123

Bouaké: 659

Daloa: 248

Yamoussoukro (capital): 243

Korhogo: 213

Climate

Tropical

Weather in Abidjan (altitude 20 metres)

Hottest months, February-April, 24-32°C (average daily minimum and maximum); coldest month, August, 22-28°C; driest month, January, 41 mm average rainfall; wettest month, June, 495 mm average rainfall

Languages

French, Dioula, Baoulé, Bété and other local languages

Measures

Metric system

Currency

CFA franc; fixed to the euro at a rate of CFAfr656:EUR1

Financial year

January-December

Time

GMT

Public holidays

Fixed: January 1st, Labour Day (May 1st), Independence Day (August 7th), Assumption (August 15th), All Saints' Day (November 1st), Peace Day (November 15th), Christmas (December 25th)

Variable (according to Christian and Muslim calendars): Prophet's birthday, Easter Monday, Ascension Day, Whit Monday, Eid Al Fitr, Tabaski

Official name

République de Côte d'Ivoire

Form of state

Unitary republic

Legal system

Based on the July 2000 constitution and the Napoleonic Code

National legislature

National Assembly; 225 members elected by universal suffrage for a five-year term

National elections

October 2000 (presidential) and December 2000 (legislative); both polls were scheduled for late 2005 but were repeatedly postponed; the presidential election finally took place on October 31st 2010, and a second-round run-off on November 28th; the legislative election was due to follow but has been tentatively scheduled for later in 2011

Head of state

Alassane Ouattara

National government

Two rival governments have been formed, neither of which has been internationally recognised; the results of the second round of the November presidential election were disputed; both candidates claimed victory and named rival cabinets; once Mr Ouattara is finally inaugurated as president in May, he is expected to name a new cabinet

Main political parties

The main parties are Front populaire ivoirien (FPI), Parti démocratique de Côte d'Ivoire-Rassemblement démocratique africain (PDCI-RDA-known as the PDCI), Union pour la démocratie et la paix en Côte d'Ivoire (UDPCI), Rassemblement des républicains (RDR), Parti ivoirien des travailleurs (PIT), and Union démocratique et citoyenne (UDCY); there are also three main rebel movements, collectively referred to as the Forces nouvelles, which are likely to become political parties or to merge with other parties: Mouvement patriotique de Côte d'Ivoire (MPCI), Mouvement pour la justice et la paix (MJP) and Mouvement populaire ivoirien du Grand-Ouest (MPIGO)

The make-up of the government is disputed

Governor of the regional central bank (BCEAO)

Jean-Baptiste Compaoré (interim)