The country's fiscal situation has been thrown into chaos since the disputed election results led to the establishment of two rival governments, and it will take some time before the state of the government's finances becomes clear. Revenue in 2011 has fallen significantly owing to international sanctions, an export ban, the suspension of aid (as well as a US$3bn HIPC debt write-off), and the BCEAO's denial of access to state accounts by Mr Gbagbo's government. The net effect was to tighten the screw on Mr Gbagbo's government's ability to function, weakening the loyalty of his troops, and it played a key role in removing him from power.

With Mr Ouattara now taking control of the fiscal levers, a large revenue improvement is expected. The new government will stand to benefit from significant flows of donor support, much of which will initially go towards alleviating the humanitarian crisis. France has pledged US$580m in emergency aid, which will be complemented by US$100m of development funds from the World Bank and EUR180m (US$245m) from the EU. These will be used to fund the resumption of essential public services-power, water, sanitation, hospitals and schools-and to pay public-sector salaries. Following the removal of sanctions, cocoa and oil export earnings should benefit from high prices in 2011. The possible redeployment of the tax and customs administration in the northern regions in 2012 could help to reduce tax evasion and smuggling. There will be large demands on government resources, and the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is forecast at 2.3% in 2011 before improving to 2.1% in 2012.