There is fresh hope for a return to political stability in Côte d'Ivoire under the new president, Alassane Ouattara, as the four-month political stand-off ended with the capture of former president, Laurent Gbagbo, on April 11th. This brought to an end a violent post-election period in which several thousand people were killed and an estimated 2m were displaced, and averted the possibility of a full-blown civil war. After he is officially inaugurated as president in May, Mr Ouattara will face many problems, three of which will carry particular importance: to manage the fall-out from investigations into the atrocities of the past four months; to establish a stable government and restart the economy; and to avoid further violence between rival factions.

The decision about what to do with Mr Gbagbo and those responsible for the recent atrocities could prove embarrassing for Mr Ouattara. He has pledged to set up a truth and reconciliation commission (TRC) to investigate and punish those responsible, including pro-Ouattara forces if evidence is found of their involvement. He is keen to try Mr Gbagbo in an Ivorian court rather than transferring him to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. However, the ICC has stated that it will conduct its own inquiry into crimes against humanity in Côte d'Ivoire. Allegations of atrocities by pro-Ouattara forces, notably the reported massacre of 800 civilians in Duékoué mean that Mr Ouattara could potentially find himself facing the ICC too, although this seems unlikely. The TRC is likely to drag out over the next few years and may spur occasional political crises if it implicates leading politicians that go on to serve in Mr Ouattara's administration.

The second significant difficulty is trying to establish a stable government, a task that Mr Ouattara has already started working on. The November 2010 polls were supposed to reunite the north and south of the country, but divisions have become more firmly entrenched and many of Mr Gbagbo's supporters believe that his opponent has mounted a coup. Mr Ouattara has called on the country to work together and promised that all regions and ethnic groups will be represented in a new government of national unity, which will be named in May. This is a difficult task; divisions have become more entrenched and he will be unable to offer positions to the many Gbagbo supporters who are under investigation. Nevertheless, it is important that he finds a way to reassure the 46% of the population who did not vote for him that he will govern in the interests of the whole country.

Perhaps the greatest challenge facing Mr Ouattara is restoring peace and security to the country after four months of spiralling violence. Prospects were boosted when Mr Gbagbo's former military chief, General Philippe Mangou, and the heads of the police, navy and security services, pledged their allegiance to Mr Ouattara. However stability is still threatened by disparate groups of pro-Gbagbo Young Patriots, and rival groups supporting Mr Ouattara that might fight over the distribution of power and resources. To prevent this, Mr Ouattara has ordered all military forces to return to their barracks. Guillaume Soro, the increasingly powerful prime minister and leader of the Forces républicaines de Côte d'Ivoire (FRCI), will play a key role in re-establishing the rule of law. UN troops will spearhead efforts to collect the vast array of weaponry, disarm informal militias and demine parts of Abidjan. The central scenario of the Economist Intelligence Unit is that an uneasy peace will return in coming months, helped by the re-establishment of a functioning economy and the easing of the humanitarian crisis, but sporadic outbreaks of violence and reprisal killings can be expected throughout the forecast period.