Outlook for 2011-12

• The new president, Alassane Ouattara, faces three significant problems; to establish a stable government, to manage the fall-out from investigations into the atrocities, and to avoid further violence between rival factions.
• A truth and reconciliation commission will be established to investigate the atrocities and might spur occasional political crises if it implicates leading politicians who go on to serve in Mr Ouattara's administration.
• Mr Ouattara has promised that all regions and ethnic groups will be represented in a government of national unity, which will be named in May. It is expected to include some prominent supporters of the previous president.
• There will be substantial challenges forming a stable government; it will be extremely difficult to reconcile political divisions, as the nation has been firmly divided by a bloody civil war.
• The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the economy will shrink in 2011, before recovering in 2012 if political stability can be maintained.
• We forecast an inflation rate of 6% in 2011 owing to the sanctions imposed because of the political crisis. As global food and fuel prices ease, we forecast that inflation will fall to 2.9% in 2012.

Monthly review

• The long-running stand-off between the disputed winner of November's presidential election, Laurent Gbagbo, and his rival, Mr Ouattara, has come to a dramatic end with the capture of Mr Gbagbo on April 11th.
• Around 120 people in Mr Gbagbo's retinue were detained in the operation to capture Mr Gbagbo, although around one-half were released over the following week.
• Mr Gbagbo's infamous "street general", Charles Blé Goudé, appears to have evaded capture, despite initial claims that he had been arrested.
• The World Food Programme has launched a nationwide airlift to get urgently-needed food, water, shelter and sanitation supplies to the 2m displaced Ivorians, as well as to refugees in Liberia.
• Mr Gbagbo's military chief, General Philippe Mangou, and the heads of the police, navy and security services, have pledged their allegiance to Mr Ouattara.
• The African Union and the EU have lifted sanctions, unfreezing the country's international assets and enabling foreign companies to resume business with Côte d'Ivoire.