Update Country Report Curaçao 03 May 2017

Event

On April 28th Curaçao held elections to select new parliamentary representatives. The new largest party is the Partido Alternative Real (PAR), which will now enter a period of negotiation to form a governing coalition.

Analysis

The PAR won 18,362 votes out of a total of 78,815, putting it well ahead of the second-placed Partido MAN with 16,071 votes. The Movementu Futuro Kòrsou (MFK) party of the former prime minister, Gerrit Schotte (2010-12), came third with 15,710 votes. Four other parties won representation in the parliament: Korsou di Nos Tur (KdNT), Pueblo Soberano (PS), Partido Inovashon Nashonal (PIN), and Movementu Progresivo (MP).

The 21 parliamentary seats are allocated through proportional representation, so the PAR looks set to hold six seats in the incoming legislature. MAN and the MFK will have five each, two will go to KdNT and one each to PS, PIN and MP. One of Curaçao's oldest parties, the Partido Nashonal di Pueblo (PNP), did not receive enough votes to win a seat-the first time in 70 years that it will not be represented in parliament.

The leading parties will now enter a period of negotiation to form a government. This could be difficult, given that the previous MAN-led government of the former prime minister, Hensley Koeiman, collapsed in February just seven weeks after being formed following elections in October 2016. The MFK subsequently established a government and tried to prevent new elections being held, before being overruled by the Netherlands. The MFK is unlikely to be willing to join a government led by another party, unless it receives considerable concessions. The PAR may therefore try to form a government with other parties such as MAN.

Impact on the forecast

The formation of a new government would return some stability to the island, which has been focused on political events since October 2016. However, the MFK is likely to prove an obstructive opposition force should the PAR's leader, Eugene Rhuggenaath, succeed in forming a government, which would complicate governability.