Update Country Report Curaçao 10 Oct 2016

Event

In the general election held on October 5th-the polls were postponed from September 30th, owing to Hurricane Matthew-the Movimentu Antiyas Nobo (MAN), led by Hensley Koeiman, gained a slight lead over its rivals. However, as the party won only four of the 21 seats in the Staten (the legislature), a new coalition will need to be negotiated.

Analysis

The MAN party secured 16.2% of the vote, winning four seats in the legislature (up from two at the last general election, held in October 2012). The Movementu Futuro Kòrsou (MFK) also won four seats (down from five previously), but obtained a slightly lower share of the popular vote, 15.9%. The MFK is led by controversial former prime minister Gerrit Schotte (2010-12), who was allowed to participate in the election, despite having been sentenced in March to a three-year prison term on money-laundering charges, as he is appealing against his conviction.

Pueblo Soberano (PS), the party of the prime minister, Bernard Whiteman, won just 6.7% of the vote (the sixth-largest share) and lost three of the five seats it previously held. Mr Whiteman will remain as caretaker prime minister until the new ruling coalition takes shape. Ahead of the PS was its coalition partner, the Partido Antiá Restrukturá, which won the third-largest vote share and retained its four seats. Most surprising was the fourth-placed finish of the new Korsou di Nos Tur party, led by Amparo dos Santos and formed only in March; it gained three seats. Lastly, the biggest loser in the elections was the Partido pa Adelanto i Inovashon Soshal, which came in ninth place overall and lost all four seats that it previously held.

Regardless of the coalition negotiations, it is widely expected that Mr Koeiman will be Curaçao's new prime minister. The MFK, however, is seeking a recount of votes at three polling stations where it claims irregularities took place. Given the small difference between the MFK and MAN results, this could have a major impact, but there is still no ruling on the matter by electoral authorities.

Impact on the forecast

We expect Mr Koeiman to lead a coalition government, although it is still not clear with whom. The position of the MFK will be crucial; under Mr Schotte's continued leadership, it could prove either an uneasy coalition ally or a difficult opposition.