The taka is expected to depreciate against the US dollar in the forecast period, from an average of Tk69.7:US$1 in 2010 to Tk76.8:US$1 in 2015. One of the main reasons for the fall in the taka's value will be the sizeable differential between the local inflation rate and that in the US. A deterioration in the current-account position, stemming from strong import growth, is also expected to exert downward pressure on the currency. Our forecast assumes that the IMF will start disbursement of a US$1bn loan later in 2011. This will help to shore up confidence in the taka, as the resulting increase in foreign-exchange reserves will significantly enhance BB's ability to intervene in the markets to prevent erratic movements in the value of the currency.