Outlook for 2011-15

• The ruling Awami League (AL) is expected to serve a full five-year term, having secured a large majority at the 2008 general election. The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has just 31 of the 300 seats in parliament.
• The government faces no immediate challenge to its rule, but there are two potential sources of political instability in the forecast period: a rise in social unrest and a new campaign of violence by militant groups.
• The fiscal position will remain weak in the forecast period as the government steps up its efforts to implement a wide range of development projects aimed at improving infrastructure and alleviating poverty.
• The economy is forecast to remain on a sustainable growth path, expanding by an average of 6.4% a year in fiscal years 2010/11-2014/15 (July-June). Growth will be supported by increases in private consumption and investment.
• The annual rate of consumer price inflation is expected to average 7.4% in the forecast period. However, prices could rise much faster if inclement weather reduces the size of harvests domestically or elsewhere.
• The merchandise trade deficit will widen during the forecast period as higher global commodity prices in the early part of the period and stronger domestic demand lead to significant increases in the country's import bill.

Monthly review

• In March a member of the BNP and a former government minister, Abdul Alim, was arrested on charges of committing crimes against humanity in 1971. Seven opposition politicians are under investigation for similar offences.
• In March the authorities allowed the transshipment of goods from an Indian energy firm through the country's land and ports. The governments of India and Bangladesh have pledged to improve trade linkages.
• Officials are also keen to improve transport links with Myanmar. On April 3rd the construction of a railway link, which would connect the southern regions of the two countries, was inaugurated.
• In March Bangladesh Bank (BB, the central bank) raised the repurchase rate by 50 basis points, to 6%, in a bid to dampen domestic credit growth.
• The government has adopted a US$8bn programme, the Country Investment Plan, to ensure food security in 2011-15. The main thrust of the plan will be to increase public investment in agriculture, nutrition and food security.
• The governor of BB, Atiur Rahman, commented in March that the country's poverty rate had fallen to 30% in 2010, from 40% in 2005.

Assuming that it retains the support of the security forces, the ruling Awami League (AL) is expected to dominate parliamentary proceedings until 2014, when its term expires, following its landslide victory in the December 2008 general election. The AL currently controls 229 of the 300 parliamentary seats, more than the two-thirds majority needed to pass constitutional amendments. Its commanding position in the legislature also means that the AL can continue to govern without the support of any of the other members of the Grand Alliance, the group of 14 parties that it leads. The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has just 31 parliamentary seats. The government faces no immediate challenge to its rule. However, there are two main potential sources of political instability before the next parliamentary election, which must be held by April 2014: an escalation in social unrest (perhaps sparked by food, power or water shortages, or by a sustained programme of dissent by the BNP), and a new campaign of violence by militant groups.

As has long been the case for the party in opposition in Bangladesh, the BNP will try to capitalise on public discontent, and will use parliamentary boycotts and street agitation as a means of protesting against the government and attempting to wrest power from the AL. However, there is a limit on the number of days for which a member of parliament (MP) can boycott the legislature. Under the current rules, MPs stand to lose their membership of parliament if they are absent for 90 consecutive days. Having boycotted parliamentary sessions since June last year, members of the opposition parties returned to parliament briefly on March 15th. The opposition are likely to continue with this strategy of absenteeism during the remainder of the current parliament.

Aside from the BNP's use of public disgruntlement over rising consumer prices and energy shortages as a means of attacking the AL, other developments in the months ahead are likely to lead to street clashes between the two parties. One source of tension is the war crimes tribunal that began its work last year. A number of senior figures in the BNP and its main ally, the Jamaat-e-Islami party, stand accused of committing atrocities during the 1971 war of secession with West Pakistan (now Pakistan) and so face possible execution. The BNP and Jamaat are united in their opposition to the trials, which they claim are politically motivated (although the BNP does not object to a war crimes tribunal in principle). The tribunal could have other repercussions, possibly including violent acts perpetrated by Jamaat's supporters and an Islamist fringe that is well disposed towards the party.

Unlike the country's previous democratically elected government, led by the BNP, the current government has admitted that a number of terrorist groups are active in Bangladesh. It has adopted a proactive approach that involves closer surveillance and attempts to restrict the flow of funds to these organisations. The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that the risk of a severe deterioration in the internal security situation in the forecast period is low, primarily because officials will continue to exercise firm control over the army and the police, both of which can be deployed quickly to reinforce law and order. Should the situation deteriorate drastically, the government could impose emergency rule as a last resort.

Another possible source of political instability is the army itself. Although its leadership does not appear to harbour political ambitions, any breakdown of the political process similar to the stalemate that prevailed in the run-up to the imposition of emergency rule in January 2007 would carry the risk of intervention by the military. However, the risk of army interference in government appears to be far lower now than in the past. The army chief of staff, General Muhammad Abdul Mubeen, is thought to have been chosen by the current prime minister, Sheikh Hasina Wajed. More importantly, he threw his support behind the government during a mutiny in February 2009 by members of a paramilitary force, Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB).

The AL government took office in January 2009 and is expected to serve its full five-year term to January 2014. The 13th amendment of the constitution provides for the organisation of national elections by a non-partisan caretaker administration. Although both the BNP and the AL respect this arrangement, the appointment of a chief adviser (the head of such an interim government), when it does occur next, could spark bitter disagreement between them. During the handover, which is expected to take place in January 2014, the BNP is likely to allege that the caretaker government is biased and that the AL controls the Election Commission. However, in the absence of a better system, elections will continue to be held in accordance with the present constitutional framework, which gives the caretaker government up to 90 days to organise a parliamentary election.

Results of municipal polls and two by-elections, all of which were held in January, show a resurgence of support for the BNP. However, provided that the AL administration makes progress on improving power supplies and manages to prevent a sharp rise in consumer prices, and also that the BNP remains in a state of flux, the ruling party will be in a strong position to win a second successive term in office at the next election-an unprecedented feat for any party in Bangladesh. The AL is likely to leave a bloody legacy: we expect the judiciary to recommend capital punishment for those accused of committing atrocities in the mutiny by BGB personnel in 2009 (when more than 50 army officers were killed), in addition to atrocities carried out during the war of secession in 1971. But such verdicts are likely to win the AL plaudits from the army and the public.

The next presidential election is due in 2014. MPs select the president, and the post usually goes to the preferred candidate of the current government. The position is largely ceremonial, but the president's role as head of the armed forces can be influential at times of political upheaval. However, moves are under way to limit the president's ability to declare a state of emergency and promulgate major ordinances under a caretaker government.

Bangladesh's foreign policy will remain focused on improving economic and diplomatic ties with India and China. Relations with India have improved dramatically since the AL government came to power. New agreements to combat terrorism, tackle crossborder crime and strengthen economic ties were signed in January 2010 and have raised hopes that a bilateral free-trade agreement will be reached. India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh, plans to make his first official visit to Bangladesh later this year. However, the government will be careful not to allow improved relations with India to damage ties with China, which in recent years has become one of Bangladesh's largest trading partners and remains its primary supplier of military equipment. The government is expected to exploit Bangladesh's strategically important location on the Bay of Bengal to extract concessions on trade and aid from both India and China during the forecast period.

The budget will remain in deficit during the forecast period as the government attempts to tackle a number of problems while also making progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals outlined by the UN. One of the biggest short-term challenges will be to improve the supply of energy. The main obstacles are a shortage of gas (the main fuel for electricity-generating plants in Bangladesh) and a large stock of old, inefficient power stations. The government hopes to boost power supplies in the short term by buying power from several independent firms that are building diesel-powered electricity-generating plants.

The government will fail to balance its budget in fiscal years 2010/11-2014/15 (July-June) as it confronts a host of domestic challenges ranging from shortages of power, water and gas to the need for welfare spending. Public expenditure is divided into non-development spending and development expenditure, the latter being administered under an annual development programme (ADP). The ADP channels funds into projects aimed at achieving improvements in areas such as education, healthcare and infrastructure. The government would post much larger deficits were it not for the fact that, owing to capacity constraints, successive governments have under-utilised the ADP budget. This is not true of non-development spending, 60% of which is accounted for by civil service pay, interest payments, and grants and aid to local governments, with a further 10% used to subsidise basic goods and services. The government's determination to continue to subsidise food and energy will place considerable strain on the public finances in 2011-15. But the maintenance of subsidies will help to support poverty-alleviation efforts and will greatly reduce the risk of social unrest.

Attempts to narrow the fiscal deficit are likely to be hampered by weak revenue collection. Bangladesh's collection rate for direct taxes is among the lowest in the world. One reason for this is the tax system itself, which is complex and features scores of exemptions, making it conducive to corruption. Revenue will be boosted slightly by improvements made to income tax and value-added tax (VAT) collection, but these gains are likely to be limited by the government's determination to keep scores of tax exemptions in place.

Bangladesh Bank (BB, the central bank) is expected to focus on the fight against inflation in the early part of the forecast period, when we expect it to take incremental steps to tighten monetary policy. Concerns that rapid private-sector credit growth is helping to stoke inflationary pressures prompted BB to raise the cash reserve requirement for commercial banks in December 2010 to 6%. BB took further action in March this year, when it increased the repurchase (repo) rate and reverse repo rate by 50 basis points each, to 6% and 4% respectively. The central bank has traditionally preferred to use the repo and reverse repo rates to influence money-market interest rates, rather than making changes to the discount rate, which has remained at 5% for the past six years. We expect BB to implement additional rises in the repo and reverse repo rates, in addition to raising cash reserve requirements further over the forecast period.

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We expect real GDP growth to average 6.4% a year in 2010/11-2014/15. Growth will be underpinned by the steady expansion of private consumption and investment. The main determinants of private consumption growth will be the performance of the agricultural sector and remittances from the country's diaspora and Bangladeshis working overseas. Although the agricultural sector accounts for less than 20% of GDP at factor cost, it is the country's largest employer and the main source of income for around one-half of the working population. The farm sector is expected to expand at an average annual rate of 3.9% in 2010/11-2014/15, compared with 4.3% in 2005/06-2009/10. Workers' remittances are forecast to grow in the next five years, but the pace of growth in the early part of the period will be tempered by weak employment prospects in the Middle East, the most popular destination for Bangladeshi workers. We expect private consumption to grow by an average of 5.9% a year in the forecast period. Gross fixed investment will increase by 7.7% annually in 2010/11-2014/15. This component is dominated by the private sector, which accounts for 80% of total fixed investment. Private investment should benefit from improving business sentiment. It is also likely to be boosted by government efforts to attract greater foreign direct investment into Bangladesh from India, China and Russia, as well as from members of the country's diaspora in OECD countries.

GDP growth at factor cost will continue to be driven by services and industry. In 2009/10 services accounted for an estimated 52.6% of GDP at factor cost, while industry contributed 28.5%. Output growth in the industrial sector is expected to average 7.2% a year in 2010/11-2014/15. The manufacture of textiles and clothing will continue to make the largest contribution to growth in output. However, the sector faces major challenges, such as tougher competition (particularly from other low-cost production locations such as Vietnam and Cambodia) and forecast stunted economic growth in major export markets in the early part of the forecast period. The services sector is expected to grow at a similar pace to industry as the government continues to focus on developing the country's outsourcing capabilities, including call centres.

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Consumer price inflation is expected to remain relatively rapid in 2011, at an average rate of 8.8% a year, compared with 8.1% in 2010. Higher global prices for wheat and oil compared with those prevailing in the year-earlier period are already putting strong upward pressure on overall consumer prices in Bangladesh. Domestic consumer price pressures are likely to be contained from 2012 onwards by a fall in global prices for oil and other commodities. A gradual decline in duty rates during the forecast period will tend to reduce import prices, but the erosion of the value of Bangladesh's currency, the taka, against the US dollar is likely to counteract this effect. There are significant upside risks to our inflation forecast. Food prices will continue to have a weighting of around 60% in the consumer price index, and so consumer prices could rise much faster than expected if inclement weather reduces the size of harvests, either domestically or elsewhere in the world.

The taka is expected to depreciate against the US dollar in the forecast period, from an average of Tk69.7:US$1 in 2010 to Tk76.8:US$1 in 2015. One of the main reasons for the fall in the taka's value will be the sizeable differential between the local inflation rate and that in the US. A deterioration in the current-account position, stemming from strong import growth, is also expected to exert downward pressure on the currency. Our forecast assumes that the IMF will start disbursement of a US$1bn loan later in 2011. This will help to shore up confidence in the taka, as the resulting increase in foreign-exchange reserves will significantly enhance BB's ability to intervene in the markets to prevent erratic movements in the value of the currency.

The trade deficit is expected to widen in 2011-15, partly because import prices will rise at a slightly faster rate than prices for exports. The trade deficit is forecast to average around US$9.1bn a year in the forecast period, to stand at US$11.3bn in 2015, compared with an estimated US$5.4bn in 2010. The import bill will also be pushed up by strong domestic demand, which is expected to suck in greater quantities of consumer and capital goods and raw materials. Export expansion is forecast to be slower than import growth. This assumption is based on our expectation that export-oriented firms will struggle to raise prices for their goods, in what will remain challenging external conditions as the country's major export markets remain on a low-growth trajectory. Concerned that the upward trend in imports will persist over the medium term and that inflows of workers' remittances may not swell as quickly as hoped, the government has decided to seek funds from the IMF to help to bolster the country's balance of payments, which posted a shortfall of US$686m in the first six months of the current fiscal year, compared with a surplus of US$2bn in the year-earlier period. At present Bangladesh has sufficient reserves to provide around five months of import cover; the government's decision to seek IMF funding hints at a determination to maintain this ratio, in part to support business and investor confidence.

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The Awami League (AL) government has completed nearly one-half of its five-year term. During this time it has launched a number of controversial political projects, some of which may not be completed before the end of its tenure. The projects include the full restoration of the 1972 constitution and the trial of those alleged to have committed war crimes during Bangladesh's war of secession with West Pakistan (now Pakistan) in 1971. The projects have dominated the political scene and are likely to do so in the remainder of the AL's term. The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its ally, Jamaat-e-Islami, are politically opposed to the war crimes tribunal and to constitutional changes that could diminish their chances of forming a government after the next parliamentary election, which is not due until 2014. (However, the BNP is opposed to the tribunals in their current format, rather than in principle.)

The BNP's opposition to the government's plans to restore the 1972 constitution is unequivocal. The party resents the reversal of constitutional changes made by Ziaur Rahman, the president of Bangladesh between 1977 and 1981 and the founder of the BNP. Mr Rahman believed that religion-based parties should be allowed to take part in the country's political arena, and bans on such parties were therefore lifted. However, the Supreme Court has already ruled that the changes made by Mr Rahman are null and void. Reverting to the 1972 constitution will have an adverse impact on Jamaat's political activities. Jamaat was part of the previous democratically elected government. It will have to consider how much it values the legitimacy of its political operations in Bangladesh. To remain a legitimate political entity in the country, the party will have to comply fully with a recent directive from the Election Commission to radically alter its charter, as well as omit any phrase pertaining to a desire to impose Islamic law should Jamaat come to power.

The BNP also fears that the government wants to scrap the caretaker government system, a constitutional provision under which the outgoing government hands over power to a non-partisan caretaker government that takes charge in the interregnum and oversees preparations for a parliamentary election. So far the authorities have indicated that they only intend to change the constitution to limit the president's sweeping power to declare a state of emergency and promulgate major ordinances under a caretaker government. The debate over how to conduct elections to the legislature is likely to intensify as the 2014 parliamentary poll approaches. However, much of the debate, not unlike the BNP's demand for mid-term polls, is political posturing. But it does illustrate that after having been out of power for almost five years, the BNP is slowly recovering confidence and preparing for the next parliamentary election.

The third issue that divides Bangladesh's two political camps is the forthcoming trial of those accused of committing war crimes in 1971. In March a member of the BNP and a former government minister, Abdul Alim, was arrested on charges of committing crimes against humanity in the war of secession. He was later released on bail, after the country's International Crimes Tribunal ordered his release on health grounds. Mr Alim was a cabinet minister during Mr Rahman's time in office. Six other high-profile politicians are being investigated for allegedly committing war crimes. Five are members of Jamaat and one other is a senior member of the BNP and a close adviser to the party's leader, Khaleda Zia. The government faces a formidable task. Few believe that the BNP would continue with the trials should it win the next election, giving the tribunal less than two years to complete its task. The trials have a small budget of Tk100m (US$1.4m) and are being carried out under the provisions of a 1973 law, the Bangladesh International Crimes (Tribunal) Act, which does not fully comply with prevailing international standards. The establishment of a war crimes tribunal and the removal of a pioneer of microfinance, Muhammad Yunus, from his role as managing director of a local microlender, Grameen Bank, has led to a view that the government is using the country's courts to settle political scores against its rivals and perceived enemies.

Another issue that has proved controversial, particularly with the BNP, is the AL's determination to forge deeper economic and diplomatic ties with India. The BNP rejects a rapprochement with India on ideological grounds. However, a rapprochement with India and improved transport and trading links are hugely important to Bangladesh economically, and both countries have vowed to improve trade links. In March turbines and machines for a power project started by Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC, a state-owned oil company based in India) in the Indian state of Tripura were transshipped through Bangladesh for the first time. The transshipment is expected to pave the way for a significant improvement in connectivity between the two countries, whose traditional transport links were in effect cut during the partition of India in 1947. Improved connectivity would help Bangladesh's poorest districts, many of which border India.

The AL government is also keen to improve transport links with its other neighbour, Myanmar. On April 3rd the prime minister, Sheikh Hasina Wajed, inaugurated the construction of a railway link that would connect the southern part of Bangladesh, Chittagong, to the southern state of Rakhine (Arakan) in Myanmar. The link will also significantly improve transport links to China. But relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar are far from harmonious. On the same day Sheikh Hasina also inaugurated a new air-force base near the country's main seaport, Cox's Bazar, to "guard Bangladesh's marine territory", which can be interpreted as a reference to a long-running dispute with Myanmar over exploration rights in the gas-rich Bay of Bengal.

In March Bangladesh Bank (BB, the central bank) raised its main policy rates by 50 basis points each in a bid to dampen domestic credit growth and contain rising inflation. BB increased the repurchase (repo) rate to 6%, while the reverse repo rate was raised to 4%, compared with 3.5% previously. The central bank said that its decision was in line with other central banks in the region, many of which have started to tighten monetary policy in the last year or so amid strengthening domestic demand and broader concerns over rising inflationary pressures. Domestic credit expanded by an average of 24.4% year on year in 2010 and by 26.2% in January. BB's decision to raise the repo rate follows its decision in March to withdraw a mandatory cap on the lending rate, which was set at 13%.

In March the World Bank delayed budgetary support worth US$300m, citing slow progress on governance issues, including anti-corruption measures and telecommunications licensing. Under proposed telecoms guidelines prepared by a local regulator, Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission, four main telecoms operators in the country-Grameenphone, Banglalink, Robi and Citycell-stand to pay higher spectrum fees, totalling some Tk280bn (US$3.9bn), when they come to renew their licences later this year. The companies along with telecoms analysts have said that the fees are both too high and irrational. Another area that has irked donors are government plans to introduce a law that would require the country's anti-graft watchdog, the Anti-Corruption Commission, to seek the government's approval before instigating proceedings against magistrates, judges or public bureaucrats.

The World Bank made no indications of whether the government's judgment to remove a pioneer of microfinance, Muhammad Yunus, from his role as managing director of Grameen Bank (a local microlender) had any bearing on the Bank's decision to delay its loan disbursement plans, but local media reports suggest that the authorities' treatment of Mr Yunus did have a partial impact. Mr Yunus has tremendous support among influential policymakers abroad, many of whom appear to be prepared to pressure the government to put an end to what they see as a political vendetta against him. The battle is as much about the microfinance pioneer as it is about donors' fears that the government may want to take control of Grameen and turn it into a tool of political patronage. Although the government has a 25% stake in Grameen, the bank is privately run and is widely seen as having been successful in helping to alleviate poverty in Bangladesh.

The government has adopted a plan to ensure food security over the next five years. The main thrust of the programme, which is known as the Country Investment Plan (CIP), will be to increase public investment in agriculture, food security and nutrition, with a total budget of US$8bn for 2011-15. The CIP includes 12 priority investment measures, to be partly funded by government and partly by funds provided by the country's development partners. The programmes will also help to spur job-creation in various sectors ranging from forestry and fisheries to water resources. The CIP aims to reverse a trend that threatens the country's food security: a secular decline in public-sector investment in agriculture. The move comes as Bangladesh builds up food stocks as insurance against future supply shocks. The government is importing 2.2m­3m tonnes of food grain in fiscal year 2010/11 (July-June), up from around 550,000 tonnes in 2009/10. Meanwhile, the rate of inflation stood at 9% in January, compared with 8.3% in the year-earlier period. Food-price inflation stood at 11.9% in January-the highest rate recorded in more than two years.

The latest data published by BB continue to point to a weakening in the country's balance-of-payments position. In the first seven months of 2010/11 the current-account surplus stood at US$428m, compared with US$2.1bn in the year-earlier period (on a monthly basis the current account turned negative in November 2010). The deterioration reflects a growing deficit on the trade account, in which the import bill has risen amid high global prices for oil and food as well as strong domestic demand. In the first eight months of 2010/11 merchandise imports surged by 41.8% year on year, to US$21bn.

The deterioration in the country's balance-of-payments position also reflects a somewhat stagnant transfers balance, dominated by inflows of workers' remittances, which has not swelled as fast as the government would have liked. In the first nine months of 2010/11 workers' remittances increased by just 4% year on year, to US$8.6bn, a significant slowdown when compared with an increase of 20% in the year-earlier period. The slowdown is not wholly attributable to recent political upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa, which have led to a deterioration in the business environment in that region and have thrown hiring plans of many firms into disarray. The slowdown in workers' remittances is also a reflection of a downward trend in the number of Bangladeshi workers taking up employment, a trend that began in 2008/09.

Nevertheless, policymakers are concerned about the possible repercussions of the fluid political situation in the Middle East and North Africa. Bangladesh depends on workers' remittances from the Middle East much more than any other country outside that region. Two-thirds of Bangladesh's recorded remittances, equivalent to US$7.2bn in 2009/10, originated in the Middle East. Pakistan also relies heavily on inflows of workers' remittances from the Middle East, where 70% of its total remittances come from. But total remittances account for only 6% of Pakistan's GDP, compared with 12% in Bangladesh.

The government has persisted with its efforts to increase the number of workers taking up employment abroad. On April 1st Sheikh Hasina urged the authorities in Bahrain, where 150,000 Bangladeshis work at present, to recruit more Bangladeshi workers. The country's officials are also trying to persuade the government in Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh's single-largest overseas labour market by far, to hire more of its workers. Manpower firms and businesses in Saudi Arabia stopped hiring Bangladeshi workers on a large scale two years ago. According to figures from the Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training, over 7,000 Bangladeshis were employed in Saudi Arabia in 2010, significantly less than the some 132,000 who took up employment in the kingdom in 2008. Meanwhile, Libya, Bangladesh's fastest-growing overseas labour market (although it accounts for only a small share of total remittances) has stopped hiring amid that country's ongoing conflict.

The rate of poverty reduction has accelerated in the last five years, according to the governor of the central bank, Atiur Rahman, who quoted as yet unpublished results of the latest household expenditure survey by the official data office, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Poverty declined at an average rate of 2% a year in 2005-10, compared with 1.8% in 2000-05. According to the new figures, the percentage of the population living under the poverty line stood at 30% in 2010, down from 40% in 2005. Without giving details of the methodology that was used in determining Bangladesh's poverty line, officials have attributed the decline to higher economic growth, rising inward remittances and the availability of safety-net programmes. Real GDP growth has accelerated from an average of 5.5% a year in 2000-05 to an annual average of 6.2% in 2005­10. Remittances, meanwhile, have surged from around US$3bn in 2005 to more than an estimated US$10bn, according to the central bank.

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Please see graphic below

Please see graphic below

Please see graphic below

Land area

147,570 sq km

Population

162.2m (2009 mid-year IMF estimate)

Main towns

Population in '000 (2006 government estimate)

Dhaka (capital): 11,814

Chittagong: 3,588

Khulna: 1,323

Rajshahi: 737

Climate

Tropical monsoon

Weather in Dhaka (altitude 3 metres)

Hottest month, July, 23-35°C (average daily minimum and maximum); coldest month, January, 11-28°C; driest months, December and January, 5 mm average monthly rainfall; wettest month, July, 567 mm average monthly rainfall

Languages

Bengali; Urdu and Hindi are minority languages, and English is also used

Religion

Muslim (89.7% in 2001 census); Hindu (9.2%); Buddhist (0.7%); Christian (0.3%); others (0.1%)

Measures

Imperial system. Local measures include: 1 tola = 11.66 g; 1 seer = 80 tolas = 932 g; 1 maund = 40 seers = 37.29 kg

Numbers are commonly expressed in crores and lakhs; 1 crore = 10m, written 1,00,00,000; 1 lakh = 100,000, written 1,00,000

Currency

Taka (Tk); Tk1 = 100 paisa. Average exchange rate in 2010: Tk69.7:US$1

Fiscal year

July 1st-June 30th

Time

6 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

January 1st (New Year's Day); February 21st (International Mother Language Day); February 26th (Birth of the Prophet); March 26th (Independence Day); April 14th (Bengali New Year); May 1st (Labour Day); May 17th (Buddha Purnima); July 17th (Shab-e Barat); August 15th (National Mourning Day); August 28th (Shab e-Qadr); August 31st-September 1st (Eid al-Fitr); October 6th (Durga Puja); November 6th-7th (Eid al-Adha); November 7th (National Revolution Day); December 6th (Islamic New Year); December 16th (Victory Day); December 25th (Christmas Day); December 31st (Bank Holiday); plus religious holidays that depend on lunar sightings and optional holidays for various religious groups

Official name

People's Republic of Bangladesh

Form of government

Bangladesh has been a parliamentary democracy since a constitutional amendment in 1991

The executive

The prime minister is chief executive and head of the Council of Ministers (the cabinet), which she selects; the presidency is a largely ceremonial role, although the president appoints members of the cabinet and the judiciary and has the power to dissolve parliament

National legislature

A unicameral parliament, consisting mainly of 300 members directly elected from geographical constituencies for five-year terms, plus 45 seats reserved for women elected by sitting lawmakers

National elections

The most recent general election was held in December 2008. A caretaker government is due to be appointed by January 2014 to supervise the next election, which must then be held within 90 days

National government

An alliance headed by the Awami League (AL) won more than two-thirds of the seats in parliament at the December 2008 election, which was overseen by a non-partisan caretaker government. The AL dominates the alliance, with a two-thirds majority in parliament in its own right. Four other parties in the alliance also won seats: the Jatiya Party is the AL's largest coalition partner, while the Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD), the Workers Party of Bangladesh and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) complete the government

Main political organisations

AL; Jatiya Party; JSD; Workers Party of Bangladesh; LDP; Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP); Jamaat-e-Islami; Bangladesh Jatiya Party (BJP)

President: Zillur Rahman

Prime minister: Sheikh Hasina Wajed

Key ministers

Agriculture: Motia Chowdhury

Civil aviation & tourism: G M Quader

Commerce: Faruq Khan

Communication: Syed Abdul Hossain

Education: Nurul Islam Nahid

Finance: Abdul Maal Abdul Muhith

Fisheries & livestock: Abdul Latif Biswash

Food & disaster management: Abdur Razzak

Foreign affairs: Dipu Moni

Home affairs: Sahara Khatun

Industries: Dilip Barua

Labour & employment: Khandaker Mosharraf Hossain

Law, justice & parliamentary affairs: Shafique Ahmed

Local government & rural development: Syed Ashraful Islam

Planning: A K Khandaker

Shipping & inland water transport: Afsarul Amin

Textile & jute industry: Abdul Latif Siddiqui

Water resources: Ramesh Chandra Sen

Central bank governor

Atiur Rahman