Consumer price inflation is expected to remain relatively rapid in 2011, at an average rate of 8.8% a year, compared with 8.1% in 2010. Higher global prices for wheat and oil compared with those prevailing in the year-earlier period are already putting strong upward pressure on overall consumer prices in Bangladesh. Domestic consumer price pressures are likely to be contained from 2012 onwards by a fall in global prices for oil and other commodities. A gradual decline in duty rates during the forecast period will tend to reduce import prices, but the erosion of the value of Bangladesh's currency, the taka, against the US dollar is likely to counteract this effect. There are significant upside risks to our inflation forecast. Food prices will continue to have a weighting of around 60% in the consumer price index, and so consumer prices could rise much faster than expected if inclement weather reduces the size of harvests, either domestically or elsewhere in the world.