The AL government took office in January 2009 and is expected to serve its full five-year term to January 2014. The 13th amendment of the constitution provides for the organisation of national elections by a non-partisan caretaker administration. Although both the BNP and the AL respect this arrangement, the appointment of a chief adviser (the head of such an interim government), when it does occur next, could spark bitter disagreement between them. During the handover, which is expected to take place in January 2014, the BNP is likely to allege that the caretaker government is biased and that the AL controls the Election Commission. However, in the absence of a better system, elections will continue to be held in accordance with the present constitutional framework, which gives the caretaker government up to 90 days to organise a parliamentary election.

Results of municipal polls and two by-elections, all of which were held in January, show a resurgence of support for the BNP. However, provided that the AL administration makes progress on improving power supplies and manages to prevent a sharp rise in consumer prices, and also that the BNP remains in a state of flux, the ruling party will be in a strong position to win a second successive term in office at the next election-an unprecedented feat for any party in Bangladesh. The AL is likely to leave a bloody legacy: we expect the judiciary to recommend capital punishment for those accused of committing atrocities in the mutiny by BGB personnel in 2009 (when more than 50 army officers were killed), in addition to atrocities carried out during the war of secession in 1971. But such verdicts are likely to win the AL plaudits from the army and the public.

The next presidential election is due in 2014. MPs select the president, and the post usually goes to the preferred candidate of the current government. The position is largely ceremonial, but the president's role as head of the armed forces can be influential at times of political upheaval. However, moves are under way to limit the president's ability to declare a state of emergency and promulgate major ordinances under a caretaker government.