Outlook for 2011-15

• The ruling Awami League (AL) is expected to serve a full five-year term, having secured a large majority at the 2008 general election. The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has just 31 of the 300 seats in parliament.
• The government faces no immediate challenge to its rule, but there are two potential sources of political instability in the forecast period: a rise in social unrest and a new campaign of violence by militant groups.
• The fiscal position will remain weak in the forecast period as the government steps up its efforts to implement a wide range of development projects aimed at improving infrastructure and alleviating poverty.
• The economy is forecast to remain on a sustainable growth path, expanding by an average of 6.4% a year in fiscal years 2010/11-2014/15 (July-June). Growth will be supported by increases in private consumption and investment.
• The annual rate of consumer price inflation is expected to average 7.4% in the forecast period. However, prices could rise much faster if inclement weather reduces the size of harvests domestically or elsewhere.
• The merchandise trade deficit will widen during the forecast period as higher global commodity prices in the early part of the period and stronger domestic demand lead to significant increases in the country's import bill.

Monthly review

• In March a member of the BNP and a former government minister, Abdul Alim, was arrested on charges of committing crimes against humanity in 1971. Seven opposition politicians are under investigation for similar offences.
• In March the authorities allowed the transshipment of goods from an Indian energy firm through the country's land and ports. The governments of India and Bangladesh have pledged to improve trade linkages.
• Officials are also keen to improve transport links with Myanmar. On April 3rd the construction of a railway link, which would connect the southern regions of the two countries, was inaugurated.
• In March Bangladesh Bank (BB, the central bank) raised the repurchase rate by 50 basis points, to 6%, in a bid to dampen domestic credit growth.
• The government has adopted a US$8bn programme, the Country Investment Plan, to ensure food security in 2011-15. The main thrust of the plan will be to increase public investment in agriculture, nutrition and food security.
• The governor of BB, Atiur Rahman, commented in March that the country's poverty rate had fallen to 30% in 2010, from 40% in 2005.