Despite all this, however, Mr Mba Obame's bold gambit may pay off to some extent. The huge media attention garnered by his self-proclamation as president will rally his supporters, who are likely in the short term to stage more protests and in the long term to regroup in a new party. If he were jailed he could gain yet more popularity by acquiring the status of a political prisoner. Meanwhile, any brutal police response to demonstrations by his supporters could yet galvanise broader public anger with the authorities and threaten the regime's survival, although this is not the Economist Intelligence Unit's core forecast at present.

In any event, his actions cast the legislative election due in December this year into grave doubt. If the Union nationale regroups under a new identity to participate in the poll the campaign is likely to be highly vitriolic, with claims of fraud inevitable. Alternatively, the opposition may boycott the election outright, which would raise tensions further. In either scenario, outbreaks of rioting in opposition strongholds, such as the economically crucial city of Port-Gentil, are to be expected. In particular, Mr Mba Obame's actions could radicalise the Fang-the biggest ethnic group in the country, of which he is a member-who are angry at their perceived marginalisation since Mr Bongo came to power, not least as their access to patronage has shrunk. Mr Bongo, meanwhile, is likely to try to head off growing popular anger by taking swift action to improve people's day-to-day lives. In particular, his government is likely to persist with its efforts to increase the fitful supply of water and electricity, and to intervene to try to keep consumer prices down-although this will be a difficult challenge given global inflationary pressures. That said, although the likelihood of public protest may increase, a replay of events in Tunisia is unlikely even if economic development stalls.