External events seem to have bolstered Mr Mba Obame's confidence. Françafrique, a documentary about Franco-African relations that was recently broadcast in France, included incendiary allegations by several former French officials that seemed to suggest that the 2009 presidential poll was indeed rigged, with French assistance, and that Mr Mba Obame was the rightful winner (January 2011, The political scene). Recent events elsewhere on the continent may also have inspired the Union nationale leader. A popular uprising in Tunisia led to the ousting of the president of 23 years, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Meanwhile, in Côte d'Ivoire the international community has unanimously backed the claim to victory of the challenger, Alassane Ouattara, over that of the incumbent, Laurent Gbagbo, following that country's October-November presidential election. More recently still, mass demonstrations in Egypt in late January have led to the dissolution of that country's government and may yet result in the ousting of its president, Hosni Mubarak. Nonetheless, these external factors are unlikely to propel Mr Mba Obame into office as he hopes.

• Although the allegations aired in Françafrique have certainly raised tensions in Gabon, they are neither new nor backed up with evidence. Allegations about electoral manipulation were made by former French officials with unclear agendas of their own. This has allowed Mr Bongo's camp to dismiss their claims as "lies" put about by the corrupt Franco-Gabonese old guard to defend its privileges against his drive to clean up politics. Moreover, one of the former French officials in question, Michel de Bonnecorse-who was the adviser on Africa to a former French president, Jacques Chirac-subsequently disavowed the allegation, claiming that his words had been taken out of context.
• The international reaction to the Ivorian political crisis has little bearing on Mr Mba Obame's claim, as Mr Bongo has been universally recognised by foreign governments as the legitimate winner of the 2009 poll. They are unlikely to reverse this position, especially in the absence of damning evidence of fraud. The secretary-general of the African Union, Jean Ping-himself Gabonese-condemned Mr Mba Obame's self-proclamation as president for jeopardising the country's legitimate institutions and stability. Meanwhile, the US embassy in Libreville issued a statement reaffirming the US government's recognition of Mr Bongo as Gabon's legitimate head of state.
• Although the Tunisian uprising may inspire the radical elements of Gabon's opposition to take to the streets, the levels of popular frustration with the government, although considerable, are not comparable. The dispute between the disbanded opposition party and Gabon's ruling Parti démocratique gabonais has not greatly interested the general public, who view it primarily as a squabble between members of an out-of-touch elite.

However, perhaps the most crucial factor weighing against Mr Mba Obame's ambition to take power is the fact that Mr Bongo apparently still commands the loyalty of the army, which he cultivated as defence minister for over ten years in his father's government. The risk of the incumbent being toppled in a coup is therefore low, albeit not negligible.