A combination of base effects, a weaker currency, higher commodity-especially food-and import prices, and higher wages and government spending, will see average consumer price growth return to positive territory over the forecast period after 2010's estimated deflation of 1.4% resulting from aggressive price competition from a new mobile telecoms provider. Despite subsidies and cuts in the value-added tax rate, we envisage average consumer price inflation of 4.4% in 2011 and 3.2% in 2012.