Country Report Gabon February 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: International relations

Gabon's close relations with France (Gabon being France's preferred partner in central Africa since independence) are attested to by the hosting of France's regional military base and Mr Bongo's frequent visits to Paris. However, a French judicial probe into the Bongo family's French assets, as well as recent claims by former French officials that his election victory was stolen, may temporarily cool relations. This could hasten the warming of relations with China, which had cooled following delays to the giant Bélinga iron ore project. Links with the US-the main destination for Gabonese oil-will remain favourable, especially given Gabon's relatively good human rights record. Regionally, Gabon's influence may weaken, as its relatively heavy diplomatic sway depended largely on the late Omar Bongo Ondimba's close relations with African leaders. An ongoing border dispute with Equatorial Guinea over the potentially oil-rich zone around Mbañe, Conga and Cocotiers islands is unlikely to escalate into military confrontation. The support of the EquatoGuinean president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, for Mr Mba Obame will continue to strain relations.

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