Outlook for 2011-12

• The president, Ali Bongo Ondimba, will continue to secure his rule over the country and the governing Parti démocratique gabonais (PDG), but grievances against his rule and reform programme will lead to protests and strikes.
• The diverse membership of the opposition Union nationale presents a risk to party unity ahead of the next legislative election in 2011. The president's rapprochement with Pierre Mamboundou would set back its cause further.
• Turning Gabon into an "emerging" economy will remain the guiding policy principle, but success will depend on the government's ability to develop much-needed infrastructure and diversify into higher value-added activities.
• Real GDP growth is forecast to average 5.6% in 2011-12 as a new oil well comes online, following the estimated rebound of 5.7% in 2010, supported by public spending and sectors such as wood and manganese.
• Consumer price growth will become positive again after estimated deflation of 1.4% in 2010. External price pressures and a weaker currency will see average inflation of 4.4% in 2011 and of 3.2% in 2012, despite price caps and tax cuts.
• The current-account surplus/GDP ratio is forecast to improve from an estimated 12.6% in 2010 to 17.3% in 2011 on the back of elevated oil prices and rising non-oil exports, before falling to 11.5% in 2012 as export prices fall.

Monthly review

• Following pronouncements by the party's secretary-general, André Mba Obame, that he is the rightful president of Gabon, the Union nationale was officially dissolved by the government on January 25th.
• Despite some protests, civil order has not been disrupted. Mr Mba Obame's move has attracted marginal domestic and no international support. TV+, the television channel that he owns, was suspended for three months.
• The president, Ali Bongo Ondimba, conducted his first cabinet reshuffle. Defying expectations, the prime minister, Paul Biyoghé Mba, retains his position, but no members of the opposition have been brought in.
• The French-based Electricité de France (EDF) has bought half of the 51% stake of another French company, Veolia, in the failing power and water utility, Société d'énergie et d'eau du Gabon, for a reported EUR15m (US$20m).
• The government has announced plans to create a national mining company to help to manage and boost the mining sector. Despite considerable gold, iron and rare earths reserves, oil will remain the lynchpin of the economy.
• The GOC was announced in March 2010 and was due to be operational by year-end, a deadline that passed without explanation from the government.