The government will struggle to balance the fiscal finances in 2020-21, although some progress will be made on reducing the size of the budget deficit. We estimate that the budget deficit will narrow slightly to the equivalent of 3.5% of GDP in 2019, from 4% of GDP in 2018. The shortfall is expected to shrink further, reaching 3.2% of GDP in 2020 and 3% of GDP in 2021. The continued deficit will partly reflect a more transparent accounting of the country's fiscal liabilities, but also the increased burden of external debt repayment associated with the Maldives' infrastructure spending boom under Mr Yameen.