The tourism sector accounts for almost a quarter of the Maldives' GDP, making it one of the main drivers of economic growth in the country. China is the largest source of visitors, accounting for almost a fifth of total tourist arrivals in 2018. The risk to our 2020 GDP forecast is to the downside. An unanticipated deterioration in the government's already difficult relationship with China could crimp tourism receipts if Chinese arrivals stagnate or decline. There are no signs of this; in the first eight months of 2019 tourist arrivals from China exhibited healthy year-on-year growth. We expect growth in public consump-tion to average 5.3% a year in 2020-21 as the economy adjusts to the government's planned fiscal retrenchment measures, which are likely to be implemented over the next few months. Mr Yameen's administration under-took several infrastructure projects funded by Chinese loans. The incumbent government is making an effort to scale down these projects, which will weaken investment and constrain real GDP growth in 2019-20, before it starts to pick up in 2021. Nevertheless, tourist arrivals from India and other markets (mainly European countries) will provide some support for real GDP growth. Overall, we expect economic growth to average 4.5% a year in 2020-21.