In recent years, oil production has been the main driver of growth, although agriculture still accounts for more than one-third of GDP and employs two-thirds of the population. The services sector is also expanding. Official data on real GDP are problematic as they do not capture the large informal economy; they also use an outdated base year, 1982 (although this will change soon). However, we estimate that real GDP growth picked up to 5.2% in 2010, led by growth in services and utilities. It is forecast to ease to 4.1% in 2011, as political uncertainty inhibits investment and then rise to 4.3% in 2012. Oil output is forecast to edge up to average 483,000 barrels/day in 2012. We forecast that dated Brent Blend will average US$101/barrel in 2011 and US$85/b in 2012. Dar Blend, which comprises more than half of Sudan's export volumes, is expected to trade closer to benchmark prices than in previous years-narrowing the average Sudanese price differential with Brent to around US$6/b in 2011-12-as more refineries around the world become able to process it.

In 2011-12 government consumption will continue to expand, as politics drives spending, and private consumption will also grow, although more gradually. There will be a reasonable amount of state investment in infrastructure, particularly electricity generation and transmission. Growth will remain unevenly spread, being particularly strong in Khartoum and the southern capital, Juba, but the government faces political pressure to invest in marginalised regions. Much private investment will be delayed owing to a lack of financing and concerns over political risks, although if southern secession is managed relatively smoothly, investment may beat expectations. Imports and non-oil exports will both grow gradually in 2011-12.