The fiscal deficit is expected to remain manageable over the forecast period, at less than 1% of GDP each year, but Sudan's overwhelming dependence on oil revenue remains a concern. These forecasts, which aggregate the fiscal accounts of both the central and the southern governments, are based on relatively benign oil price assumptions; the deficit could widen sharply if oil prices underperform. A recovery in oil prices boosted government revenue by an estimated 26% in 2010, to SP26.2bn (US$11.3bn). The Economist Intelligence Unit expects revenue to be pushed even higher to 33% by the 2011 oil price spike, but to grow more slowly over the rest of the forecast period as oil prices drop. Tax receipts are forecast to rise and the depreciation of the Sudanese pound in 2011 will push up the local-currency value of oil export revenue. These trends will help to offset the costs of the transition to southern secession, which will weigh on security budgets. Nonetheless, the central government was sufficiently concerned about its fiscal position to introduce a new austerity package in January, including a phased reduction in subsidies on fuel and sugar. This has already sparked protests, and implementation could be delayed. Total government spending rebounded strongly after the 2009 crash in oil prices and rose by an estimated 29% to SP30.9bn in 2010, but will grow more modestly in 2011-12.

The GOSS's spending is funded almost entirely by oil revenue transfers from the national government, which will average about US$2.9bn a year in 2011-12. This figure may alter after independence depending on the agreement made between the two governments over oil. The south would prefer to pay a transit fee to the north rather than splitting revenue, but any fee has yet to be settled. Southern Sudan risks a fiscal crisis at the time of separation as the GOSS struggles to cope with corruption, inflation and the cost of preparations for secession. High oil prices during the forecast period will ease the pressure, although most expenditure will be on wages, and the capacity to improve infrastructure and public services will remain low. The GOSS has approved a SP5.5bn budget for 2011, roughly the same as in 2010.