Following estimated real GDP growth of 2.8% in 2010, the economy is forecast to improve over the outlook period and to grow by 3% in 2011 and by 4.3% in 2012. Growth in 2011 will be supported by government consumption (despite official claims to the contrary), investment and mining, although oil production will decline further, to 57,500 barrels/day (b/d). Oil production is expected to recover in 2012, to 64,100 b/d, as new wells start production, which will drive exports and stronger growth. Investment in mining increased substantially in 2010, and several mines will begin production towards the end of the forecast period, further supporting growth in 2012 and beyond.

The important timber subsector will remain buoyant, and a successful policy to stimulate local first-stage wood processing will contribute modestly to job creation in the sector. Mining and infrastructure projects will drive construction, while other services such as banking, insurance and telecommunications will be supported by foreign investment. Camair, the revived national airline, started operations in March 2011 and will contribute to growth in the services sector. Agricultural production will increase in 2012 as various development projects begin to show effects, despite falling international prices for agricultural exports and structural impediments in the sector, such as a lack of land rights and poor access to agricultural credit.