Outlook for 2011-12

• The Economist Intelligence Unit's core forecast is that the president, Paul Biya, will stand and win re-election in 2011, in view of his dominance of the political scene and the lack of credible opposition.
• Mr Biya's party, Rassemblement démocratique du peuple camerounais, is expected to consolidate further its overwhelming majority in parliament in the legislative election scheduled for 2012.
• Calls for the president to step down-from civil society, the diaspora and the international community-will intensify ahead of the presidential election.
• Although the government will struggle to control spending during a presidential election year, we forecast that the fiscal deficit will steadily return to near-balance by 2012.
• Investment and increased mining output will raise real GDP growth to 3% in 2011 and further, to 4.3%, in 2012.
• Driven by trends in the trade account, the current-account deficit is forecast to widen to 4.3% of GDP in 2011 before stretching further in 2012, to 4.4% of GDP, as commodity prices reverse their gains.

Monthly review

• Only months ahead of the presidential election, the National Assembly passed two laws to modify the electoral process.
• In response to pressure from the UN and opposition parties, one of the revisions to the election process expands the membership of the national electoral commission, Elections Cameroon.
• However, the second election-related law has angered opposition parties because it gives the (yet to be created) Constitutional Council the exclusive right to announce the results of future elections.
• The US Department of State's latest human rights report, released in April, documented numerous abuses in Cameroon during 2010.
• Black market activity in the cotton sector flourishes, despite government policy and an export ban on the crop since 2005, as prices for cotton are reportedly three times higher in Nigeria than the regulated price in Cameroon.
• An umbrella civil society association, Dynamique Citoyenne, published an evaluation of the government's national development strategy, which found that implementation of the plan has been lagging.