Ferro-alloys, platinum, gold and tobacco will continue to dominate export earnings, while diamonds could become an important source if the current confusion over Kimberley Process authorisation for regular auctions is resolved in Zimbabwe's favour. The strong performance of the tobacco sector in the 2010 season is likely to encourage farmers to seek to boost output in 2011-12, although agricultural growth will be partly dependent on climatic conditions, while expansion of the mining sector will be influenced by international mineral prices, the government's approach to international investment-specifically, mandated levels of local ownership-and the success of attempts to boost power supply. Such problems are unlikely to be resolved in the near term and, given the long lead time of 3-5 years to bring major mining projects on line, will act as a constraint on export volumes over the medium term. Rising import demand, meanwhile, has been largely funded by increased domestic credit and higher humanitarian assistance. It is questionable whether the former is sustainable, while the latter may be affected by political developments-particularly if the election process becomes violent.

Since tourism will recover only slowly-tourist arrivals increased by 11% in 2010, but this was relatively disappointing given attempts to capitalise on the holding of the football World Cup in neighbouring South Africa-the Economist Intelligence Unit expects the services account to remain in deficit in 2011-12. The income account is also set to remain in deficit, even though the repatriation of profits and debt-service payments will be limited. Only the current transfers account will be in surplus, owing to continued remittances by the 3.5m-plus Zimbabweans living abroad. The current-account deficit as a percentage of GDP is set to shrink sharply in 2011, to 18.2%, owing largely to the impact on exports of the start-up or expansion of a number of mining projects, before expanding again in 2012, to 37.7%, as export growth is hit by political and business uncertainty in the wake of elections.