Mr Mugabe continues to take an antagonistic approach towards Western states, threatening to nationalise companies based in Western countries that have imposed sanctions against Zimbabwe. If, as seems likely, there are serious concerns about the conduct of the next elections, sanctions may well remain, but a new ZANU-PF government would increasingly turn its attention to Asia for trade and aid.

The MDC will continue to turn to regional powers to influence Mr Mugabe, but this strategy is appearing increasingly ineffectual. Leaders of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), with a wary eye on the "Arab Spring" in North Africa, are unlikely to be keen to back a populist like Morgan Tsvangirai against a "liberation hero" like Robert Mugabe, and even if they were, it is far from clear what the SADC could do to enforce its recommendations. Sanctions (let alone armed intervention) are not on the agenda while Mr Mugabe still commands support among other members of the African Union, and although the SADC has expressed doubts about the viability of holding elections in 2011, it has on previous occasions given qualified support to ZANU-PF poll victories.