The MDC and Mr Tsvangirai, as prime minister, insist that no elections can be held until a new constitution is in place, "along with appropriate electoral safeguards". This process is likely to take most of the rest of 2011: the parliamentary committee responsible for drawing up the draft admitted in March that it will not be possible to hold a constitutional referendum before September. Given that, according to the GPA, this must be followed by a constituency delimitation exercise and the re-registration of voters, polls probably cannot be held under a new constitution until mid-2012. This strategy is favoured by some members of ZANU-PF, who believe that the MDC is steadily losing popular support. It is still possible that Mr Mugabe will decide to hold elections under the existing constitution, possibly in the hope that the MDC will not participate-although this would be a high-risk strategy, given that such elections would probably be unacceptable to the international community. At present the most likely option is that elections will be held in the first half of 2012, but they could take place this year if rumours that Mr Mugabe's health is deteriorating prove to be correct, the ruling party decides that this would be to its electoral advantage, or Mr Tsvangirai and the MDC quit the coalition, voluntarily or otherwise. Whatever the exact timetable, instability and political risk are likely to increase in the run-up to and the aftermath of the polls: ZANU-PF has used violence and intimidation, as well as electoral manipulation, to win previous ballots, and there are few signs that the next election will be substantially different.