Political uncertainty is set to rise substantially in 2011-12 in the run-up to and the aftermath of elections. Relations between the two main parties in the country's power-sharing government, Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), are extremely poor, with rumours that key MDC cabinet ministers-including Mr Tsvangirai-have been threatened with arrest, and there has been little progress towards implementing the conditions of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) signed in September 2008. There is also speculation that Mr Mugabe himself is effectively being sidelined, and that the military has usurped the political powers of the government of national unity (GNU). A third force within government-if it does in fact exist-would do little to increase stability in a situation in which there are already tensions both within and between the MDC and ZANU-PF. Moreover, tensions will clearly increase in the run-up to the polls. Political stability is likely to be undermined if there is another ZANU-PF victory in disputed circumstances, or if there is a "third force", since it is questionable whether the latter would accept an MDC victory.