The OECD's monthly leading indicator for India recorded a further fall in January. The indicator dropped from 99.7 points in December to 99.3 in January (100 indicates average long-term growth). The OECD's "growth cycle outlook" is for an economic slowdown in India. By way of comparison, China's outlook is for a "possible moderate downturn", while that of Brazil is for a "stable pace of expansion". Russia, a major oil producer, is the exception among the so-called BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), with an outlook of "expansion".

According to the OECD's analysis, India's business cycle peaked in March 2007, dipped to a trough in February 2009 and then bounced back to reach another peak in February 2010. Since then, the pace of economic expansion has slowed. However, more recent economic data suggest that activity in the manufacturing and services sectors regained strength in February. According to the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index, manufacturing activity accelerated in February in response to new orders, with the index rising to 57.9, from 56.8 in January. In February the services sector expanded at its fastest pace in seven months (despite rising input prices), helped by steady growth in new business. The HSBC Markit Business Activity Index rose from 58.1 in January to 60.2 in February, to chalk up its 22nd consecutive month of expansion.