Despite the continuing merchandise trade deficit, a large surplus on the current transfers account will ensure that the current account remains in surplus in 2011-15, to the tune of 2.5% of GDP on average. The current-account surplus will fall in 2011 as the value of goods imports rises sharply in line with higher global oil prices. Although the recent political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa could result in a drop in remittances from Filipinos working in the region, a general improvement in overseas labour markets will help to support a rise in the transfers surplus. Merchandise exports will expand by an average of 11.2% a year in the forecast period, driven by healthy final demand in the Philippines' main export markets. Imports will expand by 12% a year on average in 2011-15, driven mainly by strengthening demand for the country's exports, which include a high imported component. The Philippines has recorded services surpluses since 2006 and will continue to do so in 2011-15. Services exports have been boosted by the country's growing importance as a base for business-process outsourcing, and the outsourcing sector will continue to record strong growth in 2011-15.