Country Report Philippines June 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Fiscal policy

The fiscal deficit will shrink as a percentage of GDP in 2011-15, but the budget will not be brought into balance. The 2011 budget, approved by Congress in December 2010, set a deficit target of 3.2% of GDP. The government raised expenditure, notably on welfare, but announced no increase in taxes. Mainly owing to underspending on capital projects, the deficit in the first quarter of 2011 amounted to only 9% of the target for 2011 as a whole. As a result, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects the deficit to narrow to 2.2% of GDP this year. As capital spending accelerates, the deficit will average 2.4% of GDP in 2012-15. Revenue will be equivalent to only 14.2% of GDP on average in 2011-15, a level below its average of 15.7% in the five years before the 2009 global recession. Although it is not targeting a balanced budget, the government will want to establish a reputation for economic competence among its foreign creditors, given that it depends on the global bond market to finance its deficit.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
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