The resounding victory achieved by Benigno Aquino in the May 2010 presidential election-he beat the second-placed candidate, Joseph Estrada, a former president, by a record margin of more than 5m votes-suggests that the Philippines is on course for a period of relative political stability. The president serves a six-year term, and under the terms of the constitution he cannot be removed from office except through impeachment. Declining poll ratings reflect the fact that he has yet to show that his election victory reflected his own abilities as a leader rather than positive sentiment towards his mother, Corazon Aquino, a former president whose death in August 2009 was mourned by millions of people. Mr Aquino's attempts to investigate corruption that is alleged to have occurred under his predecessor, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, have already made enemies of those who benefited from the patronage of her administration.

One of Mr Aquino's first acts as president was to pass an executive order establishing a "truth commission" to investigate claims of corruption, but in December 2010 the Supreme Court ruled that the order was unconstitutional. Thwarted in their attempt to investigate Ms Macapagal Arroyo herself, Mr Aquino's supporters in the House of Representatives (the lower house of Congress) then began to target the previous president's allies by voting to impeach the official ombudsman, Merceditas Gutierrez. Rather than stand trial in the Senate (the upper house), Ms Gutierrez resigned on April 29th, thus preventing public hearings into why she had failed to secure any corruption convictions. Still, Mr Aquino now has an opportunity to appoint a new ombudsman in whom he has confidence to lead his anti-corruption campaign.

Although Mr Aquino can count on the support of the House of Representatives, only four of the Senate's 23 members currently belong to his Liberal Party (LP). The president will therefore have to work hard to win the support of the upper house for his policies. So far the administration has been successful in pushing through important pieces of legislation, such as the 2011 budget. But other parts of the president's legislative programme may face more resistance. Proposals supported by Mr Aquino to relax restrictions on birth control risk alienating the Roman Catholic church, a powerful force in the devoutly religious Philippines. Despite calls by some church leaders for a tax boycott and other forms of civil disobedience, the lower house began debating the "responsible parenthood" bill on May 17th. A week earlier the Catholic Bishops' Conference of the Philippines had pulled out of talks with the government aimed at reaching a compromise over the proposed legislation.

Mr Aquino must avoid alienating the armed forces. Ms Macapagal Arroyo faced a series of military mutinies during her presidency, but she survived them with the support of the army's most senior generals. In an early attempt to win the backing of the armed forces, Mr Aquino has offered to pardon all those implicated in the mutinies against his predecessor. However, he may come to regret this decision: granting pardons to those who rebelled against the previous commander-in-chief will do nothing to dissuade errant officers from taking up arms again in the future. Civilian-military relations have been strained recently by Senate hearings into Ms Gutierrez's role in investigating high-level corruption in the military, including claims that army funding was siphoned off into a "retirement fund" for senior generals. The risk of a coup should not be overstated, but political divisions could prove destabilising if they permeate through the ranks.

Security risks will also persist throughout 2011-15. Despite years of negotiations, Ms Macapagal Arroyo failed to finalise a peace agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the main separatist movement on the southern island of Mindanao. However, the rebel organisation responded positively to Mr Aquino's election victory, and formal negotiations with the government resumed in February 2011. But serious obstacles to a peace agreement remain. Any attempt, for example, by Mr Aquino to reinstate the terms of a collapsed 2008 peace accord-and especially the previously proposed boundaries of an autonomous Muslim homeland-would encounter strong opposition from Christian politicians on Mindanao. There will also be difficulties hammering out a deal with the National Democratic Front, the umbrella organisation of the Communist Party of the Philippines, and its military wing, the New People's Army. Official negotiations resumed in February 2011, aimed at ending a rebellion that has lasted for more than 40 years.