On March 10th Camille Vital-the prime minister of the transitional government, Haute autorité pour la transition (HAT)-resigned. This was in compliance with the "roadmap" to fresh elections, which was put forward by the transitional government and has been endorsed by Leonardo Simão, the mediator for Madagascar of the regional grouping, Southern African Development Community (SADC). Mr Simão apparently backed the plan in the hope that a new broad-based administration would provide a counterweight to the transitional president and coup-leader, Andry Rajoelina. A change at the top of government was supposed to herald a new consensus-based administration to manage the transition. The roadmap also envisages an enlarged and more inclusive parliament and electoral commission.

In principle, the plan provided a credible basis for a return to democratic government. However, it specified that the new prime minister should be proposed by the political parties that have signed the plan. This in effect excludes loyalists of three former presidents-Albert Zafy, Didier Ratsiraka and Marc Ravalomanana-who boycotted the process and are the main opposition groups. Nonetheless, Mamy Rakotoarivelo who represents the exiled Mr Ravalomanana in Madagascar, stated that his party, Tiako-y-Madagasikara (TIM) would consider signing up to the plan but was opposed to Mr Rajoelina remaining as transitional president with powers to choose the premier and the membership of the transitional assembly. Mr Rakotoarivelo suggested that, for the sake of balance, the Ravalomanana camp should choose the new prime minister. However, Mr Simão was reluctant to let the roadmap fall victim to squabbles between political factions, suggesting that SADC would not support changes to the original plan that might jeopardise its success. Mr Rajoelina was quick to take advantage of Mr Simão's reluctance to allow revisions to the plan. On March 16th the HAT leader announced that he had reappointed Mr Vital as prime minister. He indicated that he had considered other possible contenders but had ultimately concluded that Mr Vital was the best candidate for the post.

Mr Rajoelina thereby secured a tactical victory: he has a prime minister who shares his agenda, and yet who complies with the wording of the roadmap, which specifies that the premier must come from a region and a political party that are not those of the president. Mr Vital, a former general, has always declared himself to be a politically neutral figure, and he comes from the south-east of Madagascar, whereas Mr Rajoelina is a highland Merina. However, in strategic terms the decision to reappoint Mr Vital may yet prove to be a mistake, as it breaks the spirit, if not the letter, of the political transition deal. It risks reviving the SADC leaders' mistrust of the HAT regime. Moreover, Mr Rajoelina's opponents did not regard the premier as a genuinely neutral figure. The appointment has, therefore, undermined the chances of persuading Mr Ravalomanana, who was ousted as president by the coup of 2009, to sign up for the roadmap.