Country Report Madagascar June 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Forecast summary

Madagascar: forecast summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
	2009a	2010b	2011c	2012c
Real GDP growth	-3.7b	-2.0	2.0	6.0
Consumer price inflation (av)	9.0	9.2a	12.8	6.3
Tourism ('000 arrivals)	150.0	200.0	210.0	230.0
Short-term interbank rate	44.6	46.0a	47.0	45.0
Government balance (% of GDP)	-2.8b	-2.1	-0.9	1.2
Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	1,034.5b	1,315.0	1,683.7	1,981.9
Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	3,211.2b	3,452.2	3,621.8	3,756.0
Current-account balance (US$ m)	-2,215.5b	-2,106.1	-1,798.4	-1,574.6
Current-account balance (% of GDP)	-26.0b	-25.9	-19.0	-13.1
External debt (year-end; US$ bn)	2.2	2.4	2.7	3.2
Exchange rate AR:US$ (av)	1,956.2	2,090.0a	2,050.0	1,900.0
Exchange rate AR:US$ (end-period)	1,954.6	2,146.1a	1,984.4	1,926.0
Exchange rate AR:¥100 (av)	2,087.6	2,378.1a	2,491.6	2,345.7
Exchange rate AR:€ (av)	2,725.0	2,770.8a	2,802.9	2,398.8
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

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