In view of the upward revision to our global commodity price forecast since the last report, we now expect goods exports to pick up to US$1.7bn in 2011 (previously US$1.6bn), driven by growth in minerals exports. Assuming that the political situation improves, export growth should be more rapid in 2012 as investors return and mining projects continue to proliferate. Meanwhile, imports are expected to increase briskly in 2011-12 as incomes rise and the demand for capital goods increases. Overall, we expect the trade deficit to be equivalent to 17.6% of GDP on average in 2011-12. We forecast that the services deficit will shrink from an estimated 1.2% of GDP in 2010 to just 0.1% of GDP in 2011 and 2% of GDP in 2012. This trend will be driven by the expected return of tourists to the island. In dollar terms the income deficit will grow slightly, in line with increased profit repatriation by foreign-owned mining firms, but will remain broadly steady as a proportion of GDP, averaging 1.1% in 2011-12. The transfer surplus is expected to rise to 2.9% of GDP in 2012 assuming aid flows return. Overall, the current-account deficit is expected to shrink to US$1.8bn in 2011 (equivalent to 19% of GDP), before narrowing to US$1.6bn in 2012 (13.1% of GDP).