The central bank has intervened in recent months to keep the exchange rate at around AR2,000:US$1. However, the BCM is expected to allow the currency to slide slightly in 2011 to an average of AR2,050 rather than let the country's foreign-reserves cushion shrink. Assuming that legitimate elections are held in 2011, the consequent increase in aid inflows and inward foreign direct investment should put upward pressure on the ariary. We expect the exchange rate to average AR1,900:US$1 in 2012.