The independence and credibility of the BCM is set to remain strong, although the HAT may exert influence on it to draw on the bank's foreign-exchange reserves, which it has held steady at just over US$1bn in recent months, to fund pre-election largesse and subsidise staples amid rising global commodity prices. In an effort to restrain inflation, the bank's policy interest rate is forecast to increase slightly from its current level of 9.5%. However, given the lack of financial depth in Madagascar, monetary policy has only limited ability to slow inflation, which is largely determined by fluctuations in local agricultural output and world commodity prices.