Country Report Madagascar June 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: International relations

The mainly anglophone Southern African Development Community (SADC), from which Madagascar has been suspended, is set to soften its hitherto hardline stance against Mr Rajoelina's adminstration, having come to acknowledge the persistent strength of his popular support. However, if SADC leaders believe that he is not honouring his commitments under the roadmap, which the organisation backs, they may withdraw their endorsement of it. Assuming that most of the opposition can be convinced to participate in the upcoming polls, and that they are held in a credible manner, Mr Rajoelina would probably receive international recognition as president if he stood successfully. French and South African firms will remain key players in the economy, and China's economic ties to Madagascar are set to increase, particularly in the mining sector.

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