The deadline for polls in the first half of 2011 is now untenable. The end of the year now appears to be the earliest that they could be held. The HAT is keen to gather as much domestic and international backing as possible for its "roadmap" back to democracy in advance of holding elections. Yet even if opposition groups do agree to participate in the polls when they are eventually held, levels of trust are so low that they are likely to cry foul if they lose.

Constitutional reforms that would allow Mr Rajoelina to run for the presidency were approved in a referendum that was boycotted by the three main opposition parties. So his candidacy, which looks increasingly likely despite his earlier pledges not to stand, will remain a major obstacle to political normalisation. However, if he does stand as we expect, his chances will be helped by the strong national endorsement of his referendum proposal and his conspicuous largesse to the electorate since commandeering much of the budget for discretionary spending. Although loyalists of the ousted previous president, Marc Ravalomanana, will denounce the poll as illegitimate if, as is likely, he is excluded from it, emerging splits in the opposition mean that some of his former allies and other opposition factions may agree to take part. Mr Ravalomanana cannot run himself, owing to a conviction in absentia relating to the deaths of protestors while he was in office. However, if he decides instead to back the candidacy of an ally, his considerable financial resources and influence among Protestant groups would pose a threat to Mr Rajoelina's electoral chances.

Given that the HAT apparently continues to have the backing of much of the country, parties allied to it could win a parliamentary majority at legislative polls (with Mr Rajoelina possibly becoming prime minister if he does in fact honour his pledge not to run for the presidency). Although not our core forecast, another highly plausible scenario is that either no polls are held in 2011-12 or they are boycotted altogether by the opposition. In either event the political impasse would persist. The decision to postpone indefinitely the municipal elections that were due to be held before the end of 2010 indicates that the HAT is prepared to abandon electoral timetables if it believes its interests are best served by doing so.