The risk of serious political instability will be high at least until presidential and parliamentary elections are held. Long-running disputes between the opposition and the unelected transitional government, Haute autorité de la transition (HAT), mean that polls are unlikely to be held before late 2011, with further delays a distinct possibility. Moreover, there is a strong risk that instability will persist even after elections are held, as the losers are likely to contest the validity of the vote. Furthermore, although it was easily suppressed, the failed coup attempt in November 2010 and the failed assassination attempt against the HAT's leader, Andry Rajoelina, in March 2011 underline the risk that he could be overthrown by disaffected members of the security services. This risk will grow if Mr Rajoelina continues to be viewed as obstructing the return of democracy and jeopardising the country's economic prospects.

Another major threat to stability is posed by increasing popular exasperation at the economic toll that the political crisis has exacted on the country. The livelihoods of the urban poor-particularly those in the capital, Antananarivo-have suffered as a result of the political crisis and international sanctions imposed on the country. Thus, a popular uprising against the HAT cannot be discounted, particularly in the light of well-publicised recent revolutions against undemocratic regimes in North Africa. However, despite increasing hardship, there have been markedly few mass demonstrations to date and no figurehead who could mobilise popular discontent has yet emerged. On balance, the Economist Intelligence Unit tentatively forecasts that stability will improve in 2012, although this rests on the assumption that democracy is successfully restored in 2011, which is by no means guaranteed.