Country Report Myanmar January 2011

Economic policy: Public debt soars, despite a further rise in tax revenue

Central government tax revenue rose by 26.8% year on year in April-August, the first five months of fiscal year 2010/11 (April-March). According to recently revised data, central government tax revenue (including customs duties) rose to Kt391bn (US$70bn at the official exchange rate, or around US$403m at the free-market rate). Growth in revenue in April-August was driven by a 58% year-on-year rise in commodity, services and commercial tax income, to Kt211.6bn, as well as an increase of close to 82% in customs revenue, to Kt24.6bn. However, the revised data show that receipts of income tax (the second-largest revenue category) fell by 13.8%, to Kt92.7bn.

The rapid build-up of the government's debt stock continued in August, suggesting that the junta continues to run a large budget deficit. The stock of five-year bonds surged to Kt389bn at the end of August, from Kt342bn at the end of July and Kt267bn at end-June. The stock of bonds of this maturity has more than doubled in five months, from only Kt182.6bn at the end of March. The value of outstanding three-year government bonds continued to fall in August, to Kt729bn, from Kt740bn at the end of July and from Kt751bn at the end of June, as repayments continued to outstrip new sales. However, the combined value of outstanding three- and five-year bonds rose to Kt1.1trn (US$196bn at the official exchange rate, or around US$1.1bn at the free-market rate) at the end of August, up steeply from Kt297bn at the end of March 2009 and just Kt178bn at end-March 2008.

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