Country Report Myanmar January 2011

The political scene: The junta is currently allowing the opposition some space

For the time being, the military regime is taking a wait-and-see approach in its handling of the post-election activities of its opponents. The junta has made no public response to the NLD leader's repeated calls for dialogue. For her part, Aung San Suu Kyi has not yet fully tested the limits of the junta's patience, for example by carrying out her promise to travel around the country to meet her supporters. (During her last period of freedom, in 2002-03, Aung San Suu Kyi toured the country to meet supporters, drawing huge crowds at each stop. Alarmed by this display of public support, in May 2003 the SPDC orchestrated a mob attack on Aung San Suu Kyi's convoy during which at least 70 of her supporters were killed, and the NLD leader was subsequently placed back under house-arrest.)

The only issue that has drawn comment from the junta is Aung San Suu Kyi's call for another "Panglong conference". This is a reference to the meeting in 1947 that brought together her General Aung San (the head of the Burmese independence movement, and Aung San Suu Kyi's father), and the leaders of the country's main ethnic-minority groups to discuss the shape of the country's future as an independent nation. The junta made no official comment, but the state-controlled media have stated that such a conference would "do more harm than good" and would contradict the junta's own planned road map for political change, which includes convening the new parliament.

Ethnic minorities make up around 40% of Myanmar's population, and there are a large number of ethnic-minority opposition groups (some in armed conflict with the junta) that are pushing for greater autonomy and a more democratic form of government in the country. The SPDC has frequently used ongoing ethnic conflict to justify continued military rule. In late November Aung San Suu Kyi met a number of ethnic-minority leaders to discuss plans. Following the meeting, concern was expressed that attempts to convene a Panglong-style meeting could trigger a crackdown by the junta. Aung San Suu Kyi herself stated that holding such a meeting, however difficult, was only a first step and that any agreements already reached on greater autonomy for ethnic minorities needed to be implemented. However, she also made it clear that she did not want to clash with the junta over the issue.

Any move to claim greater autonomy for ethnic minorities will be strongly resisted by the junta. The SPDC wants armed ethnic groups that have ceasefire agreements with the regime to join forces with the junta as part of a new Border Guard Force (BGF), a plan opposed by almost all ceasefire groups. The junta's pursuit of its BGF plan has caused tension to rise in border areas in recent months. In some places an increase in fighting has resulted in thousands of ethnic-minority refugees fleeing across the border into Thailand.

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