Country Report Myanmar January 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: External sector

Export revenue will continue on an upward trend in the next two years. Revenue from sales of natural gas, Myanmar's main export earner, will remain high but will not rise sharply until new fields come on stream (in 2013 at the earliest). Revenue from other important exports, such as pulses and timber, will strengthen in line with a recovery in regional demand. The import bill will grow rapidly in 2011-12, driven up by rapid growth in major foreign-invested projects in the oil and gas, power, mining and infrastructure sectors. In 2012 the merchandise trade surplus will be insufficient to offset the combined deficit on the services and income accounts, resulting in the country's first current-account deficit since 2003.

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