The junta is forecast to maintain its highly overvalued official exchange rate in the next few years, but it could scrap the Foreign Exchange Certificates (which are equal to US dollars, but which are converted at slightly different rates on the black market). At the free-market exchange rate the kyat appreciated to an average of Kt1,055:US$1 in 2009, and it has strengthened further in recent months, owing in part to Myanmar's improved external trade position. The kyat is expected to average Kt970:US$1 in 2010. It will then weaken in 2011-12, reflecting the forecast deterioration in the current-account position. The potential for political instability will also undermine confidence in the currency.