Country Report Myanmar January 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: International relations

Myanmar will continue to receive the support of important allies in Asia, most notably China, India and Myanmar's fellow members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), all of which will accord full recognition to the post-election administration. Following the elections, the regime received praise from these allies, which lauded the polls as a positive development in the country's political reform process. By contrast, and as expected, many Western governments condemned the elections as a sham, asserting that they were neither free nor fair. They have, however, celebrated the freeing of Aung San Suu Kyi, and the junta is probably hoping that this is where the focus of international attention will remain. The military may hope that Aung San Suu Kyi's release will persuade the US and other Western governments to loosen economic sanctions against Myanmar. In late 2009 Aung San Suu Kyi held talks with military officials during which she is thought to have offered to co-operate with the generals to try to remove barriers to the country's development, particularly in relation to international sanctions. If she were to make such suggestions to the US and the EU, it would put their governments in an awkward position given that prospects for genuine political reform and improvements in human rights in Myanmar remain poor.

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