Country Report Kyrgyzstan May 2011

The political scene: There is friction within the ruling coalition

The three-party government coalition-formed in December by Ata-Jurt (Fatherland), Respublika and the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK)-has justified doubts about its unity and durability (February 2011, The political scene). Since taking office it has been racked by discord, and faces a possible change in composition. In March coalition members disagreed over the right of the prime minister, Almazbek Atambayev, to hold office should he take part in the presidential election scheduled for October 2011. Kamchybek Tashiyev, a leader of the nationalist Ata-Jurt, agitated for a promise that Mr Atambayev, who heads the SDPK, would give up his current post if he stands, as most observers expect he will. Mr Tashiyev, who has threatened repeatedly to pull his party out of the coalition, is also expected to stand in the election. However, rumours abound that Ata-Jurt has itself been splitting into factions.

Recent press reports have linked Ata-Jurt members to several altercations. On April 1st Mr Tashiyev publicly exchanged blows with a deputy from Respublika. The fight was followed by a parliamentary lockdown in which security officers seized guns, including automatic weapons, from deputies and their staff. Several weeks later the parliamentary speaker, Akmatbek Keldibekov (also of Ata-Jurt), proposed legislation to grant deputies the right to bring weapons into the building. Soon after the brawl, allegations emerged that Mr Tashiyev had given a member of his own party concussion in an altercation. Mr Tashiyev, the veteran head of the National Boxing Federation, has denied any wrongdoing.

In mid-April the first deputy prime minister-Omurbek Babanov, the leader of Respublika-temporarily stepped down in the wake of a scandal surrounding the country's largest mobile telecommunications service provider, Megacom. Mr Babanov's voluntary suspension of duties followed two weeks of accusations by a former prosecutor-general, Kubatbek Baibolov, who had been dismissed on March 31st, pending an investigation into his own possible involvement in unscrupulous activity surrounding Megacom. Mr Baibolov claimed that Mr Babanov had illegally profited in 2010 from the company's partial nationalisation by the interim government and had extorted US$50m from Russian investors. Mr Babanov resumed his duties on May 16th, cleared of wrongdoing by a parliamentary commission.

The Megacom scandal also included a bitter ownership dispute in which two law enforcement bodies-the public prosecutor's office and the financial police-appeared to be working at cross purposes. The stand-off led to speculation that the two agencies had become proxies in a battle over commercial interests by different political groupings. Similarly, a high-profile campaign against organised crime, initiated in February by the president, Roza Otunbayeva, drew scepticism for its rash of arrests, which one lawmaker claimed had targeted criminals allied with a particular political clan.

As Ata-Jurt and Respublika tussled, the opposition Ar-Namys (Dignity) strengthened its position. Ar-Namys-led by a former prime minister, Felix Kulov-is now in negotiations to join the ruling coalition. This would neutralise Ata-Jurt's threat to defect by ensuring the necessary majority of seats for the governing alliance. Mr Kulov and Mr Atambayev have a chequered history of working together, but it appears that Mr Kulov is attempting to position his party inside the government before the presidential election. Although popular both domestically and with the Russian authorities, Mr Kulov cannot stand for the presidency, as he does not speak fluent Kyrgyz, a constitutional requirement. However, he could emerge in a powerful position following the election if he succeeds in joining the coalition and Mr Atambayev wins the presidency.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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