Country Report Kyrgyzstan May 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Monetary policy

The effectiveness of monetary policy will remain constrained by the underdeveloped nature of the domestic financial sector. A trend of rapid depreciation of the som in the first quarter of 2009 led the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR, the central bank) to make extensive foreign-currency sales. This trend continued in 2010, and accelerated as the currency came under severe downward pressure following the events of April-June, although a return to relative political stability has started to slow the som's fall in 2011. Continuing intervention will help the NBKR to control the som money supply, but the central bank will be reluctant to deplete its foreign-exchange reserves excessively. Higher inflows of remittances than in 2009 will also help to sustain the som.

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