Mr Bakiyev attempted to play off the interests of Russia against those of the US, securing a large financial aid and loan package from Russia in 2009, as well as a tripling in the rent paid by the US for its use of the Manas airbase. However, Russia became increasingly frustrated at what it saw as Mr Bakiyev's reneging on promises (notably, his failure to shut the US base), and it was quick to recognise the interim administration once he had been overthrown. This implies that Russia is set to become a more prominent partner for the country, particularly in view of its investment plans in the Kyrgyz hydropower sector. However, Ms Otunbayeva, although educated in Russia, has served as ambassador to the US and the UK. That she will remain interim president until the end of 2011 suggests that ties with the West will not suffer an immediate rupture. In addition, the uncertain security situation in Afghanistan is expected to lead to some degree of tolerance on the part of Russia of a US presence in the region.

Relations with immediate neighbours will remain tense. Ties with Uzbekistan were already under strain because of disputes over energy and water use. Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan were alarmed by the outbreak of unrest in a neighbouring state, as they do not want their own populations to follow the Kyrgyz example. The borders with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have been closed periodically since the outbreak of violence in April 2010. Although the Kazakh border has since been largely reopened, and the Uzbek authorities allowed refugees across the border in order to flee the violence in June 2010, border restrictions will remain tight, and will continue to be subject to arbitrary closure throughout the forecast period.