A parliamentary election was held in October 2010. The next parliamentary election is not due until 2015. However, a coalition government comprising three parties has had to be formed from the five that won parliamentary representation in October, so as to achieve a parliamentary majority. The current grouping, comprising the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), Respublika and Ata-Jurt, is likely to be an unstable alliance. There is therefore a high risk that the coalition will collapse during the forecast period. Given that the current coalition is the result of a second attempt at forming a government since the election, its collapse could result in an early parliamentary election. A fresh election is unlikely to give a single party an overwhelming majority, so there is a risk of policy paralysis in the medium term.

Following Mr Bakiyev's ouster, the presidency has been occupied on a temporary basis by Roza Otunbayeva. The interim administration has set a date of October 2011 for the presidential election. Ms Otunbayeva has ruled herself out as a candidate. The next president is therefore most likely to come from among the leaders of the five parties that won parliamentary representation in October 2010.