The security situation remains unstable following the violent ouster of the president, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, in April 2010, and an outbreak of ethnically motivated violence in June 2010 Kyrgyz Republic will remain vulnerable to further unrest over the forecast period. Despite successfully holding a parliamentary election on October 10th 2010, the formation of a new government was a protracted affair. The government, inaugurated in December, is a three-party coalition that appears to be split on such basic issues as whether the country should be a parliamentary republic or should revert to presidential rule. The Economist Intelligence Unit's baseline forecast is that the new government will continue the work of the previous interim administration in gradually asserting control, but the risk of further unrest remains. This is particularly the case given that the party that won the most votes in the election, Ata-Jurt (Fatherland), seems at odds with its two governing partners, and its longevity within the coalition is in some doubt. This bodes ill for the stability of the south, where Ata-Jurt enjoys most of its support. Furthermore, more than 60% of those who voted did so for parties that are not represented in the new parliament, and this de facto disenfranchisement increases the potential for protests by disaffected segments of the population.

Outside actors are likely to assist the authorities to some extent. For example, an international donor conference in July 2010 agreed to the disbursement of US$1.1bn to help to restore stability and economic growth. Russia will also reinforce its role as an important security partner over the forecast period. However, public demonstrations are likely to remain frequent and could easily turn violent. There is also a high risk that ethnic violence could break out again in the south.

Any further outbreak of unrest on the scale seen in June 2010 could lead to the intervention of outside armed forces. Although our central assumption is that stability will gradually be reinforced, the situation remains tense and there is some risk that the country could degenerate into civil war. In an extreme scenario, one possible outcome could be a split along ethnic lines and a redrawing of the borders in Central Asia. Nevertheless, although neighbouring regimes in Central Asia will have been alarmed by the possibility of protest spreading to their own populations following the recent unrest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), our central assumption is that the Kyrgyz Republic will not suffer contagion from these events. Despite the continuing threat of instability within the country, the ouster of the authoritarian Mr Bakiyev, and the successful holding of a free and fair parliamentary election in October 2010, reduces the threat that copycat protests could spread from MENA to the Kyrgyz Republic.